This is it – the end of the road for many J16 rowers this season. The final of J16 Championship Eights may be the last time these oarsmen compete together as a crew before they move into the world of senior rowing. Can Shiplake defend their title? Or will the pack converge to crown a new victor? Exam preparations go out the window as these boys prepare to go down the track, one last time.
Shiplake College
Last year’s winners, Shiplake have been amongst the fight for the top spots this year, but haven’t yet managed to take the gold in a major race. Third at Hammersmith Head and Fourth at Schools’ Head, they enjoyed a strong Winter but seem to have slipped back slightly in Regatta Season. They finished fourth in a strong field at Wallingford and second in a slightly weaker one at Nottingham City. Notably, both of these finishes saw them placed behind St Edward’s School, a crew that they had been faster than, albeit narrowly, during the head season. Nonetheless, Shiplake has a reputation for blending strong ergo scores with sharp technique, meaning that they should never be discounted. With a productive Easter Camp and two weeks between their last appearance and National Schools’, they are still in with a chance of a medal at Nationals, with the overall win an unlikely, but not impossible, stretch.
St Paul’s School
Another crew that hasn’t quite matched the achievements of their previous J16 cohort, this St Paul’s crew, like many to come, will have big shoes to fill once they move on to their senior squad next season following the unmatched dominance of Bobby Thatcher’s eight in 2018. A strong performance at National Schools’ in J16 8s this year could herald a strong senior squad next year. However, based off of results this season, St Pauls’ will be more outside contenders for medals rather than outright favourites this year. Fifth at Schools’ Head and a full 19 seconds behind the winners, Eton, much work will have been needed on their Easter Camp in Portugal to catch up with the frontrunners. However, it should be noted that this isn’t necessarily the 8 fastest St Paul’s J16s, indeed, the strokeman of their J18 First VIII this year, Joe Middleton, is a J16, and we don’t know if there are others racing in senior 8s that would otherwise be making an appearance in this category. However, they are still representing Paul’s as their J16 First VIII, and will want to do their boat club proud.
Eton College
Moving from a crew that has failed to live up to last season’s expectations to one which has blown all away. Eton J16 crews – like their 2017 cohort, tend to sit towards the back of the pack in the head season before exploding into life come the summer. Yet this crew has bucked the trend completely. Mere C finalists in J15, they have had a storming season so far, taking the J16 Champs 8s pennant at School’s Head and the win at Wallingford Regatta, these boys are one of the favourites to take home the gold in this event. It could just be that they showed their full speed early on in this season, but if they follow the same path of improvement shown by past Eton J16 crews between Winter and Summer, we could be witnessing a record-breaking crew at Dorney. Regardless, these boys will be aiming for nothing less than a gold medal.
Westminster School
Also battling for the gold medal at National Schools’ will be Westminster. The boys in pink have enjoyed a strong season so far. They took the pennant at both Quintin and Hammersmith Head early in the season, but were forced to settle for silver at Schools’ Head, as they were defeated by Eton by a margin of only 3 seconds. This was cut down to 1 second over 2km at Wallingford Regatta, with this being the last event we saw them compete at. Last year’s experiment with a top quad didn’t quite pay off for Westminster, with their scullers failing to win and their 2nd VIII placing poorly. As such, they will be looking for success not only in the J18 events, but in J16 to ensure a continued legacy of success for the boat club. I expect these boys to leave Dorney with medals, and I will not be shocked if those medals are gold.
Aberdeen Schools Rowing Association
Don’t be surprised to see ASRA at the top end of the leaderboard in this event. This cohort of J16s is a very strong year group. Schools’ Head winners and National’s bronze medallists in J15, they have bolstered their past successes this year in the face of challenges from the more ‘established’ boatclubs. Their northerly setting makes it difficult to find results to compare them to their competition. But, as usual, they made the long trip down to the Tideway for Schools’ Head in March and secured a bronze medal, a tantalizing 0.1 of a second behind Westminster. This was last major result I could find for them, but if they have managed to stay this close to Westminster’s regatta season times, then they will be in a very strong place to challenge for medals and indeed, the win.
St Edward’s School
It’s been a few years since we’ve seen a St Edwards crew claim a medal at the National Schools’ Regatta. However, this could be the crew that break the mould. They’ve had a strong, if perhaps not outstanding, head season, with a 4th and 5th place finish at Hammersmith Head and Schools’ Head respectively, putting them in the fight for a medal this year. However, they have really stepped on in the summer months. They finished third in a very competitive field at Wallingford Regatta, only 4 seconds behind Eton, took the win at Nottingham City Regatta, beating close competitors Shiplake both times. At the end of Winter, a podium finish was looking unlikely for teddies, but with their recent uptake in speed coming into the Regatta season, a medal seems a very strong possibility. They’re not necessarily favourites for the gold, but count them out at your own peril.
Royal Shrewsbury School
With a strong tradition of rowing success, Shrewsbury are a common sight in A finals. Their J16s last year couldn’t quite manage it, having to settle for 9th overall and a podium finish in the B final. Their cohort this year will be aiming to reestablish themselves at the top end of the J16 scene. Their head season was fairly average, with an 8th place finish at Schools’ Head, a full 33 seconds behind the medal spots. They’ve been pretty quiet so far this summer, with a third-place finish at Nottingham City Regatta, but 8 seconds off high fliers St Edward’s. However, much can change in 2 weeks, especially as the pressure of National Schools’ looms. Moreover, Shrewsbury’s program tends to see them peak later in the season, as evidenced by their J18 First Eight’s impressive Henley run last year, making it to the Saturday before being knocked out by eventual finalists Eton. The win may be out of their grasp this time, but a spot in the A final, and perhaps a medal, is still possible if they find more speed in these two weeks.
Prediction
This is a really tough one to call. The medal positions could be taken by any combination of these crews and the rest of the A final is as difficult to call. Whilst there are a group of four crews that will perhaps be more likely to take home the medals, leaving the rest to fight it out for the lower spots in the final, it would be very foolish to discount any of these crews. Despite this, here is my overall prediction for the top six.
1st: Eton College
2nd: Westminster School
3rd: St Edward’s School
4th: Aberdeen School’s Rowing Association
5th: Shiplake College
6th: St Paul’s School
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