“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” – Winston Churchill

The National Schools’ start-line is what I imagine Purgatory to be like, 72 self-declared sinners awaiting their six minutes of judgement, leaving nine names immortalised on the Queen Mother cup and the rest sobbing on the bus back home. There’s a purity to the race you don’t get the rest of the season: no temperamental Tideway lines, no throngs of geriatric has-beens and unamused day drinkers lining the Henley banks, just the pursuit of glory and a chance to leave a legacy before time erodes us all. 

Shiplake College

Shiplake are no longer just the winter kings. The first inklings of their 15-second victory at Schools Head caused panic in Putney, rival coaches flooding the timekeeping station and praying for some kind of misprint. Rumours of their collapse have been wholly unfounded; the Oxfordshire group claimed a victory at Wallingford without their star player, Freddie Middleton (undefeated at trials this season). Performances like that show there’s something serious cooking. Shiplake’s strength is their lack of weak links, returning their J16 gold-medal winning stern four, while poaching international talent like Seric Critchley and Fin Worthington. If the rumours of an end to the import and develop system that’s helped the last half-decade of Shiplake eights is true (amongst others), this may be their clearest shot at a National Schools’ trophy. 

St Paul’s

St Paul’s are no Manchester City. Having struggled at Wallingford, six seconds behind a Teddies crew and unceremoniously dumped out in the heats, there’s been a moment of self-reflection for the once impregnable black-and-white mafia. Maybe Peerless and Wolfensberger can’t get it done on a spring afternoon in Slough? Poplar Regatta marked a step forward for Paul’s, dispatching a host of challengers in Latymer, Dulwich and KCS by the same margin Eton and Westminster did, and shaking up their crew lineup, but we were robbed of an afternoon showdown between them and Shiplake, the result of which might have set a very different tone to this preview. I still think Pauls have real talent, putting two pairs in the A final at the GB Pairs Regatta and Alp going 6:06, but at present, they just don’t have that dawg in them.

Radley College

If the quality of a boat club’s TikTok’s determined their speed, Radley wouldn’t be worth writing a preview for. However, coming a second behind Shiplake at Wallingford and second at Schools’ Head makes Radley a dark horse to take the Queen Mother Cup. With an international-calibre coaching team of John Gearing, Sam Townsend plus Mike Genchi with the J16s, Radley don’t need national team talent, (which is just as well considering they’re the only School in the top eight without representation at Munich). This year’s Radley crew can’t rely on the big guns of years past, as the likes of Charlie Elwes, Luke Miles and Cam Tasker are replaced by a pack mentality and strength in depth. I still can’t make up my mind on Radley, but after proving me wrong at School’s Head, they’re hard to count out.

Eton College

Considering they’ve got three boathouses and an Olympic Lake of their own, Eton‘s domestic dominance is well-founded. Last year damaged their reputation, proof that Eton Blue can get rowed through on the straights of Henley. This year, though starting off slowly, feels like one where Eton are in a good position to repeat their 2019 heroics. The Etonian middle three of Perkins, Scott and Aubrey-Williams is probably the most formidable unit in junior rowing this year, and a combination of the decision to embrace telemetry with the famous Eton bulking regimen leaves an armoury of horsepower and finesse that’ll be hard to catch. A poor School’s Head gave way to a resounding victory at Wallingford, taking clear water on the field (albeit without the top four from School’s Head) within the first 500, and then trouncing Shrewsbury last weekend. After their 10-year drought on home water, can Eton make it three in a row?

Westminster

After a harrowing defeat at Henley last year, the 2023 season has been a more solid one for Westminster, re-finding a comfortable mid-table position. From sixth at Schools Head, to second in School Eights at Wallingford, Westminster’s results have gnawed at the leading schools, but the question remains whether they can step up and challenge for the medals, or the win. Much of this falls on Peel, the Harry Maguire of junior rowing, who’s performed for his country, but hasn’t yet been able to vault his club to glory. Westminster do have a strong supporting cast; their middle pair of Morris and Taylor are an imposing presence, there’s a certain unknown fear factor after crushing KCS and Latymer at Wallingford plus the incredible sprint finish which saw them close down to half a length on Eton in the same race. It’s unclear whether they’ll be able to hang with the likes of Shiplake out of the blocks. 

St Edward’s

The post-covid revival of Teddies as a major power continues this year, as does the habit of bringing in U23 World Champions to race at Wallingford. Considering Teddies had a grown man in their five seat (and I’m not talking about Isaac Hillicks-Tulip) their margin of two seconds behind Shiplake bears some scrutiny. With their stroke apparently out next weekend, I’m unsure whether Teddies can better their fourth-placed finish at Schools’ Head. There’s no nonsense about their race plan – we’ve seen their famous move at the one kilometre in each of the last two years, and it seems like boom or bust is the order of the day (second in 2022 and sixth in 2021).

Latymer and KCS

While I was pilloried for grouping the two together for School’s Head, these two tideway clubs seem to have inexplicably linked fates. KCS took clear water on Latymer at Wallingford before the reverse happened at Poplar. Latymer have created a lot of hype this year but last year’s J16 silver medallists seem to have found steam under Sam Grant. Wild and Hanlein came third at the Pairs Regatta and while their margin to Paul’s was large, it represented a step on from earlier in the season. Meanwhile, KCS have cured a post-2022 hangover; Scowen and Corbett are driving a developmental eight on, and potentially setting the groundwork for another championship push a couple of years down the line. With the second X89 shell in schoolboy rowing, KCS certainly have the tools for success, but this might just be one race too far in a rebuilding season for the boys in blue.

Other Contenders

In a sport dominated by the grand system and program, it’s hard for what would once have been non-Championship schools to compete. However, this year has a plethora of very solid eights that’ll bring a depth lacking in years past to the C, B and maybe even A finals. Foremost among them is Shrewsbury, the bulk of the crew taking home a shock silver medal in 2021 J16 eights, rowing down Radley. While Shrewsbury had a miserable Wallingford, in a showdown with the Radley second eight, recent fixtures suggest they’ve gained some proper speed, hanging with Eton pretty well for the first 750, and likely challenging for the back end of the A final. Hampton, one of the classic rowing schools, will also vie for those last couple spots, having come tenth at Schools’ Head before dominating our CH8 poll. I can see the rest of the B final being filled by the likes of Dulwich, Reading Blue Coat, and a surprise entry from Llandaff, powered by Schlottman and James, fresh off a Munich silver medal.

Predictions

1^st          Shiplake

2^nd       Eton

3^rd        Radley

4^th        St Paul’s 

5^th        Westminster

6^th        St Edwards

7^th        Latymer

8^th        KCS

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