United States of America (Bronze)
The USA last won the Olympic men’s coxless four title way back in Rome in 1960 and a win in Lucerne will have given them a huge confidence boost heading into Paris, but it could well be a case of “too much too soon”. The crew is very experienced – all four raced at the Tokyo Olympics, with Mead, Corrigan and Best finishing fourth in the eight and Grady fifth in the four. They’re a well-matched crew and have been racing together in various combinations since their junior days (Corrigan and Grady were in the JM8 back in 2014). The crew came together as a unit for the 2023 season, taking bronze at the Lucerne World Rowing Cup and then finishing as runners-up to the British at the world championships. As mentioned above, they handed the British (and Kiwis) a defeat in Lucerne (which was the first time the USA had beaten the GB four since 2015). They will head into Paris full of confidence, but I think both the British and the Kiwis will have the edge on the Americans.
Great Britain (Silver)
For Great Britain, the men’s coxless four is considered “their” event at the Olympics. They’ve won it more times than any other nation (nine) and that included an historic run of five consecutive Olympic golds between 2000 and 2016. One of the key elements of that success was the continuity of personnel; between 2000 and 2016, there was always someone in the boat who had won Olympic gold and (from 2004) had been in the four at the previous Olympics. That connection was broken in Tokyo with unfortunate results. The crew attempting to wrestle back the Olympic crown are all Olympic newbies, but that doesn’t mean they are inexperienced. Some elements of this crew have been involved in the boat throughout the Paris Olympiad, winning the world titles in 2022 and 2023 and European titles in 2022, 2023 and 2024, producing a winning streak that lasted for 21 races. The boat, led by Freddie Davidson, dominated the field throughout the 2023 season, often winning by clear water and under-rating their opponents by 3-4 strokes-per-minute. This season, however, the flow has been disrupted somewhat, as they beaten for the first time in three years at the opening World Rowing Cup by Italy. They then produced their worst result as a crew at the second World Rowing Cup, being beaten into bronze by the Americans and Kiwis. Overall, their performances this season have made them look vulnerable, and given their opposition confidence that the Brits can be beaten. There’s a big part of me that thinks GB will recapture their mojo in Paris, but I’m going to err on the side of caution/pessimism, and say they’ll just come up short.
New Zealand (Gold
New Zealand have only ever won one Olympic medal in the men’s coxless four and that was gold back in 1984. Their crew for Paris has a really, really good chance of not only ending the medal drought but also repeating the gold medal performance. The crew is anchored by two Tokyo gold medallists from the eight – Matt MacDonald and Tom Murray. Murray is the “granddaddy” of the crew; he’s been part of the senior Kiwi team for over a decade and won back-to-back U23 titles in 2013 and 2014 and was part of the Kiwi eight that finished sixth in Rio. After Rio, he took over the daunting mantel of his namesake, Eric as half of the NZL men’s pair, winning bronze at the 2017 worlds and then silver in 2019. For Olympic year the Kiwis famously stacked their eight, coming away with an historic gold medal. MacDonald was also part of that Olympic crew, having raced in the four in 2018 and then moving into the eight for 2019. Maclean and Ullrich are, by comparison, relative newcomers to the senior team. Both were US educated, both won medals at U23 level and made their senior debuts as part of the four in 2023. The Kiwis finished the 2023 season with a world championship bronze medal. This season they’ve made a huge impression on the field, taking silver in Lucerne (beating the GB four for the first time since 2013) and then comprehensively beating their antipodean rivals at the final World Rowing Cup. The battle for the gold is going to be really tight, but I feel the Kiwis just have the edge.
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