Ireland (Bronze)
You can’t really talk about the lightweight men’s double in the last few years and not mention Ireland, and some people may be surprised that I’ve only got them in bronze. The Irish, whether that’s the O’Donovan brothers or Paul O’Donovan and McCarthy, have dominated this event for years, winning the world championships four years in a row as well as taking the Olympic title in Tokyo. They are something of a maverick combination, and when they are on song, no one can get close, but they have been plagued by injuries (O’Donovan missed the 2023 Europeans and McCarthy missed the 2024 edition). They’ve made one appearance so far this season, racing at the Lucerne World Rowing Cup, but their bronze medal was their worst result as a crew and O’Donovan’s worst result in the lightweight men’s double since 2018. Now this might just have been an anomaly and they will be back to their dominant form in Paris, but they have shown vulnerability and their main opposition (Switzerland and Italy) have had much more racing and consistent results this season. I think these three crews will be well ahead of the rest of the field and any one of them could win gold, but I’m going to be bold and give it to the young Swiss chased home hard by Italy and Ireland.
Italy (Silver)
Italy have a strong history in this event although they have yet to win the Olympic title and last won world gold in 2003. Stefano Oppo and Gabriel Soares won bronze at the 2023 world championships. Oppo, along with long-time partner Pietro Ruta, won world championship silver in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 and they also won Olympic bronze in Tokyo. Paris will be Oppo’s third Olympics, having raced the light coxless four to a fourth place in Rio. Soares raced in the lightweight single in 2022, winning the world title and in 2019 was in the lightweight quad that won world championship silver. This season, as mentioned above, they’ve been having a great fight with the Swiss, coming out on top at the first and second World Rowing Cups, but losing out at the Europeans.
Switzerland (Gold)
Schaeuble and Ireland are one of the youngest combinations in the event, with an average age of just 24, but they’ve made a big impact on the event since they first started racing together in 2022, winning their first race at the opening World Rowing Cup that season. They followed that with European bronze and fourth at the world championships. They went from strength to strength in 2023, repeating their opening World Rowing Cup victory, and followed that up with the European title (Switzerland’s first championship gold in the light double since winning the Olympics in Atlanta). This was followed by a second World Rowing Cup gold at the second iteration of the series and bronze to close out the series. The world championships last year saw them take silver behind Ireland (Switzerland’s first world championship medal in the lightweight men’s double in ten years). They’ve had a strong run into the Olympics with tight contests against the Italians, taking silver at the first and second World Rowing Cups and winning gold at the European Championships. I’m picking them to take gold but it’s going to be incredibly close for the medals, and there’s the added incentive (if one was needed) that whoever wins the lightweight men’s double will remain reigning Olympic champion forever as the event drops out of the Olympic programme after Paris.
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