The overuse of ‘unprecedented’ as the buzzword of 2020 has somewhat diminished its impact: however, the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics on 24th March 2020 cannot be described in any other way.
An Olympic games has only ever been cancelled once before, due to the outbreak of WWII. Since then, the Covid-19 pandemic has been the only event to produce such devasting global ramifications that the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has taken the exceptional decision to postpone the games.
With an expected cost of around £5 billion, the adjournment of the Games has had a serious financial impact upon Japan. After investing huge amounts into the preparation of the Olympic park (originally budged to cost $12.5bn but has in reality cost roughly twice that), Tokyo had been left counting on the influx of visitors to boost their economy.
Closer to home, UK Sport has claimed an extra £53 million in order to support Olympic and Paralympic athletes through these uncertain times. The effects of Tokyo 2020’s delay have reached far beyond the city itself; the implications for athletes, the IOC and spectators must also be considered.
An article published by the BBC in July 2020 raised the question of whether athletes approaching retirement age – as well as those facing the financial, emotion and physical strain of another year of such intense training – would decide to devote another year to Olympic preparation under such uncertain circumstances. Should the IOC decide that it is unsafe to go ahead with the Games in 2021, this year’s training would be in vain. When the article was published, the future wasn’t looking too hopeful for a successful games, as only 23% of the Japanese supported hosting the Games if infection rates remain high into the new year. It’s not only the Japanese population who’s safety must be taken into account; athletes coming from countries who are worse affected than others – such as the USA – pose significant risks to local infection rates. The wellbeing of both athletes and the Japanese population must be prioritised.
The government has also ruled out further postponement to 2022, meaning that 2021 is the last chance for the Tokyo Olympics to go ahead.
Fast-forward a few months to October, and things look as though they might be starting to turn a corner. Although – as predicted – infection rates have increased with the onset of colder weather, IOC president Thomas Bach has suggested that Tokyo is still planning to open up to spectators of the Games in 2021. Some sports leagues in Japan have returned to a semblance of normality in recent months with spectators attending fixtures, and Bach states that though stadiums may not be filled to capacity as in previous years, the committees are still working on the premise that spectators will be present. According to the IOC’s Olympic Games’ Executive Director Christophe Dubi, the committee will be able to offer more concrete plans come December. Despite residual uncertainties, the future of the Games undoubtedly sounds a lot more hopeful now than during the summer months. Additionally, Japan has announced that borders are set to reopen to tourists from April 2021 and expect to have a plan for how to do so safely from January. As the Games are set to start on 23rd July, this should provide enough time to make any necessary readjustments to ensure sufficient safety.
Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike has discussed how important it is that the Games go ahead, whilst also reinforcing the fact that only 400 out of the 14 million-strong population of Tokyo have died from the virus and that it is her aim to keep the death toll low. Koike also mentions extra security measures which will be put in place to protect everyone, should the Games go ahead.
Given the current circumstances – living in a society where illness is rife, and safety measures such as physical distancing and the wearing of masks are likely to remain part of everyday life for the foreseeable future – it is difficult to know what to expect from the Tokyo Games. The Willis Research Network has compiled an in-depth article considering all the potential risks that would come with the Games being given the go-ahead in 2021. This reflects not only on the dangers associated with the pandemic, but also those induced by climate change and a greater dependency on technology. It seems likely, therefore, that stadiums will have reduced capacity and that athletes will have to undergo even more rigorous testing and preparation in order to be allowed to compete.
To conclude, despite ongoing uncertainty, it seems more likely now that the Games will go ahead in 2021, though they will of course look very different to how they have in the past. With social distancing measures, stricter security on every level – including rigorous testing expected – it will definitely be a Games to remember, and hopefully not just for pandemic-related reasons.
Lucy
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