So here it is, the big one, the one all rowers want to race at, and for some, the culmination of years of training and dedication: it’s the Olympic Games. Finally, after months of uncertainty, it looks like the Games will happen. One thing’s for sure, these Games will be unlike any other in history. The venue is the Sea Forest Waterway, specially built for the Games and inaugurated in 2019. As the name suggests, it’s a coastal venue and has had its fair share of issues, from strong winds to oysters growing on the buoys. But when conditions are right, it’s a fantastic course.
As always, with my previews, I’ve tried to give a rundown of the form, experience and prospects of those competing. I hope that readers find this a valuable and exciting guide to those racing in Tokyo. If you have enjoyed what I write, perhaps you’d consider buying me a coffee via my Ko-Fi page https://ko-fi.com/X8X64ORYM
Current Standings:
Reigning champions: France (Jeremie Azou & Pierre Houin)
Rio Silver Medallists: Ireland (Paul O’Donovan & Gary O’Donovan)
Rio Bronze Medallists: Norway (Kristoffer Brun & Are Strandli)
Algeria: Sid Ali Boudina (31) & Kamel Ait Daoud (36)
Both Boudina and Daoud have previous Olympic appearances to the credit. Daoud raced in the LM2X at the Beijing Olympics and Boudina successfully qualified the M1X for Rio. Daoud took a break from international competition after Beijing and didn’t return until 2014 but he just missed out qualifying thee LM2X for Rio. He and Boudina raced as a LM2X at the final World Cup of 2019 and they secured qualification for Tokyo with a win at the African Olympic Qualifying Regatta. They raced in singles at the 2021 Lucerne World Cup with Boudina getting the better of his team-mate with a 7th place v 15th. They came back together in the LM2x for Sabaudia finishing 4th in a 4-boat event (even though they were in last place, 4th will still count as the best ever result for an Algerian crew at a World Cup).
Tokyo prospects: towards the back of the C-Final…17th or 18th.
Belgium: Tim Brys (28) 7 Nils Van Zandweghe (25)
This duo missed qualification for Rio thanks to the “1 boat at a continental qualifying Regatta” rule. They made sure they didn’t have to go through that ordeal this time round by securing direct qualification with a 7th place at the Linz World Championships. Tokyo will be the first time since 2004 that Belgium will have an Olympic LM2X racing. Brys and Van Zandweghe have been racing together in the LM2X since 2016. In 2017 Van Zandweghe won bronze in the LM1X at the European Championships, before returning to the double for the World Championships placing 5th, which at the time was Belgium’s best ever result in this event at a world Championships. That mark was soon eclipsed however in 2018 when they won bronze at the World Championships, Belgium’s first Olympic-Class medal since 1995. 2019 saw them win world Cup and European Championship medals, but their 7th place in Linz, whilst enough to qualify for Tokyo, was perhaps a little below par. They won another European medal in 2020 and then this season have raced once, finishing 5th at the Lucerne World Cup.
Tokyo prospects: An A-Final placing will be a great achievement…I think they will either be 6th or just miss out on the A-Final and take first in the B-Final for 7th overall.
Canada: Patrick Keane (24) & Maxwell Lattimer (28)
Canada’s best performance in this boat class at an Olympics was 12th in Beijing. Keane and Lattimer gained their spot in Tokyo with victory at the Final Olympic qualifying Regatta. Lattimer made his senior debut in 2014 and spent the first few years on the lightweight sweep team, including racing in the LM4- at the Rio Olympics. With the demise of the LM4- as an Olympic event he switched to the sculling squad, and in 2017 formed aLM2x with Keane. They finished 4thin their first race at the Belgrade World Cup (the best result for a Canadian LM2X since 2012). They took 4th again at the Lucerne World Cups of 2018 and 2019. In 2019 they finished 9th at the World Championships
Tokyo prospects: Unlikely to make the A-Final in such a competitive field, but a mid-B-Final placing should be achievable.
Chile: Eber Sanhueza (23) & Cesar Abaraoa (24)
Senhueza and Abarao showed their talent when they raced together at the U23 World Championships in 2018 finishing in 4th place. They followed that up with 20th at the senior World Championships. They competed at the 2019 Pan American Games winning a bronze medal and secured their spot in Tokyo with 2nd place at the Americas Olympic Qualifying Regatta. They came to Europe this season and raced at the Lucerne World Cup finishing 11th.
Tokyo prospects: If they could make the B-Final it will be Chile’s best result at an Olympic Games since 2004. I think it’s possible, I’m picking the for 11th or 12th.
Czech Republic: Jiri Simanek (25) & Miroslav Vrastil (38)
Miroslav Vrstil’s senior international career spreads back to 2007 and Tokyo will be his 3rd Olympics. He raced in the LM4- throughout the majority of the London and Rio Olympiads. His best result throughout that period was a European silver medal in 2011 – the first Championship medal for a Czech LM4-. The LM4- finished 11th in London and then in Rio finished 12th. Simanek started his senior career in 2015 and in 2017 formed a doubles partnership with Vrastil. At their First World Cup regatta together in Belgrade they won silver, the best performance by a Czech LM2X since 1998. That silver has, so far, been the highpoint of their doubles partnership. They were 7th at the 2018 World Championships and then 10th in 2019. At the 2021 Europeans they finished in a strong 4th and they gained qualification for Tokyo with a 2nd place at the Final Olympic Qualifying Regatta.
Tokyo prospects: This double can be a bit hit and miss, a strong showing at the Europeans this season shows they can mix with the top European crews, but their performances can also be a bit lacklustre. I’m picking them for 10th or 11th.
Germany: Jason Osborne (27) & Jonathan Rommelmann (26)
Germany have raced in the LM2X at every Olympics so far, but have yet to win a medal – their best performance to date was 4th in Sydney. But, their crew for Tokyo stand a real chance of beating that record. Osborne and Rommelmann won bronze at the 2019 World Championships, delivering Germany’s first World Championship medal in this event for 20 years. Osborne started his career in 2013, winning the U23 BLM2X World Championships. 2013 also saw him win a senior World Championship medal in the LM4X. He won his first Olympic-Class Championship medal taking silver at the 2016 Europeans with Moritz Moos. Osborne and Moos raced at the Rio Olympics finishing 9th. After Rio Osborne raced in the LM1X at the 2018 World Championships winning gold. Rommelmann is also a former U23 World Champion and won his first senior medal in the LM4X at the 2015 World Championships. In 2019 he moved into the LM2X with Osborne. They won the European Championships and the 2nd and 3rd World Cups in 2019. In 2020 they won silver at the Europeans, and so far this season they won silver at the Europeans and also have medals from the Zagreb (gold) and Lucerne (bronze) World Cups. Osborne made the most of Lockdown winning the Zwift Virtual Cycling World Championships. After Tokyo he intends to quit rowing and join a professional cycling team.
Tokyo prospects: The Germans will definitely be in the mix for a medal, don’t think it’ll quite be the gold, but will be in the battle for the bronze.
India: Arjun Lal Jat (24) & Arvind Singh (25)
India qualified for Tokyo with a 2nd place at the Asia and Oceania Olympic Qualifying Regatta. They have stated that their target is to make the top-12 in Tokyo and use it as a stepping stone towards they target of winning gold at the Asian Games in 2022. Both Lal Jat and Singh raced at the 2019 World Championships. Lal Jat finished 31st in the LM1X and Singh was 27th in the LM2X.
Tokyo prospects: 2nd at the Asian Qualifying regatta was a great result for India, not sure they will achieve their target of a B-Final placing. More likely will be mid-C-Final.
Ireland: Fintan McCarthy (24) & Paul O’Donovan (27)
The Irish will head into Tokyo as the overwhelming favourites. The performance of Paul and Gary O’Donovan at the Rio Olympics was one of the standout moments of the Olympics (despite it “only” being silver). Their post-race interviews launched them into something resembling cult heroes and gave rowing two superstars. Paul O’Donovan won the LM1X World Championships in 2017 (due to injury to his brother Gary). The brothers were reunited in 2018, winning the World Championships and delivering Ireland’s first LM2X World Championship gold medal, and their first medal of any colour in this event since 2003. But, in 2019 Gary O’Donovan lost his seat to Fintan McCarthy. McCarthy spent four years on the Irish U23 team and then made his senior debut in 2018, finishing 5th in the LM4X. He raced at the 2019 European Championships with his twin brother Jacob, before forming a partnership with Paul O’Donovan at the 3rd World Cup. Gold at the World Championships followed, and in 2020 McCarthy won bronze in the LM1X at the Europeans. So far in 2021 McCarthy and O’Donovan are unbeaten, winning gold at the Europeans and then gold by nearly 3 seconds at the Lucerne World Cup.
Tokyo prospects: Overwhelming favourites. Based on their performance at Lucerne there doesn’t look to be any crew that can get within a length of the Irish. I’m picking them for gold.
Italy: Stefano Oppo (26) & Pietro Ruta (33)
Italy are always strong in this boat class at World Championship level (they have medalled at 10 of the last 15 worlds), but at the Olympics they always seem to come up just short, only once since lightweight racing was introduced to the games in 1996, has an Italian LM2X made it to the podium (Silver at Sydney in 2000), and they’ve only made the A-Final twice (2000 & 2008) whereas you have to go back to 1995 for an Italian LM2X not to be in an A-Final. That being said, the Italian crew for Tokyo stand a very, very good chance of not just making the A-Final, but also of taking a medal. Tokyo will be Pietro Ruta’s 3rd Olympics, he raced in the LM2x with Elia Luini that finished 7thand in Rio he and Stefano Oppo Oppo and Ruta were both in the LM4- that finished 4th. Oppo has Junior, U23 and senior world Championship titles to his name, his first senior title coming in the LM8 in 2013. These two came together as a double at the start of the 2017 season and won silver at the World Championships that year behind the French. They won silver again in both 2018 and 2019, this time behind Ireland. They won the European title in 2020 but slipped back to bronze in 2021. They also raced at the 2nd and 3rd World Cups this season, 4th in Lucerne was actually their worst result in the double, and in Sabaudia they were narrowly beaten by Norway.
Tokyo prospects: If I was basing my predictions on the form from 2019 then the Italians would be a sure-fire bet for a medal (probably silver). However, their form so far this season hasn’t been quite at that level, and the result in Lucerne will have been concerning. I still think the Italians will be capable of getting a medal, but I think they will be in a fight for the bronze.
Norway: Kristoffer Brun (33) & Are Strandli (32)
The Norwegians are the most experienced partnership in the event, they have been racing as a LM2X since 2007. They were 9th at the London Olympics and then in 2013 won the World Championships in Chungju (on a remarkable day which saw Norway win both the LM2X and M2X – the only time this has ever been achieved). They followed that up with bronze in 2014 and 2015 and then in Rio they won Norway’s first lightweight Olympic medal taking bronze behind France and Ireland. 2018 saw them take the European title but then slip back to 5th at the Worlds. They went one better in 2019 but still missed the podium. 2021 has shown a real return to form for the veteran crew, winning silver behind the Irish in Lucerne and then beating the Italians by 17/100th of a second in Sabaudia.
Tokyo prospects: almost the reverse of the Italians….if I was basing the prediction on 2019 form I would say the Norwegians would make the A-Final but probably not the podium. But, based on their form so far this season they have emerged as the strongest challengers to the Irish. Not sure they’ll beat the boys in green but will be up there fighting the Italians and Germans for silver and bronze.
Poland: Jerzy Kowalski (33) & Artur Mikolajczewski (31)
Another highly experienced partnership, this duo first raced together in the LM2X in 2009 finishing 14th at the U23 World Championships. Mikolajczewski raced at the Rio Olympics with Milosz Jankowski reaching the A-Final. Mikolajczewski and Kowalski won their first medals together in 2017 taking bronze at the 1st and 2nd World Cups and ended the season with 4th at the World Championships. The 1st World Cup of 2019 delivered their best result with a silver and they again reached the A-Final of the World Championships that year, qualifying the boat for Tokyo. They’ve raced as a double once this season, finishing 8th at the Lucerne World Cup.
Tokyo prospects: target should be an A-Final appearance, but 6th at best for me.
Portugal: Pedro Fraga (38) & Afonso Costa (25)
2021 will be Pedro Fraga’s 20th season on the international rowing circuit. The oldest man in the event, he made his debut back in 2002 and will be heading to his 3rd Olympic Games. For a large part of his career he raced with Nuno Mendes (the two of them were U23 medallists in 2004 and finished 8th in Beijing and 5th in London). But, after Mendes retired in 2017, Fraga formed a new partnership with Afonso Costa. Their first race together saw them finish 10th at the 2018 Europeans, and at the 2019 world Championships they missed direct qualification for Tokyo after finishing 2nd in the C-Final. They secured their spot in Tokyo with a 2nd place at the European Olympic Qualifying Regatta.
Tokyo prospects: 2nd half of the B-Final; 9th or 10th.
Spain: Manel Balastegui (21) & Caetano Horta Pomba (18)
The youngest crew in the event, Horta Pomba, at 18, is the youngest male rower in the whole regatta. Balastegui was U23 World Champion with Rodrigo Conde Romero in 2018 and made his senior debut at the World Championships that year in the LM4X. Balastegui and Conde Romero qualified the boat for Tokyo with a 5th place at the 2019 World Championships (Spain’s best result at a World Championships sine 1990). Conde Romero moved to the M2X at the start of 2021 (perhaps due to an issue with hitting weight). This meant that Balastegui needed a new partner. Horta Pomba moved into the LM2x for the 2021 European Championships, making his senior debut, and together they finished 7th.
Tokyo prospects: the Balastegui/Conde Romero combination stood a good chance of making the A-Final. But, with the change to bringing in the young Horta Pomba it’s more likely that they will be in the middle of the B-Final. But they are a young crew and will be using Tokyo as experience and will probably be more of a force for Paris.
Thailand: Siwakorn Wongpin (21) & Nawamin Denoi (22)
Another young crew, the Thai’s secured their spot for Tokyo after placing 8th at the Asia and Oceania Olympic Qualifying Regatta (it’s a quirk of the Olympic qualifying system when a crew that finishes 8th out of 9 crews in the event can still get an Olympic place).
Tokyo prospects: probably the lowest ranked boat in the event, 17h or 18th.
Ukraine: Stanislav Kovalov (29) & Igor Khmara (31)
Another well-established pairing. Kovalov and Khmara have been racing together in the LM2X since 2012 when they finished 6th at the European Championships. They missed qualification for Rio and then raced in the LM4X at the 2016 World Championships. They’ve placed 6th at the European Championship in 2018, 2020 and 2021. 20th at the 2019 World Championships meant they had to race at the European Qualifying Regatta but comfortably secured their place after finishing 1st
Tokyo prospects: Another crew that should target somewhere in the middle of the B-Final.
Uruguay: Bruno Cetraro Berriolo (23) & Felipe Kluver Ferreira (21)
It’s been 69 years since Uruguay last won an Olympic medal or reached an Olympic Final, their best result since then came in 1988 with an 11th pace in the M1X. But, as far as the LM2x goes, they last qualified the boat in London and finished 16th (one place of their fierce rivals from Argentina). Their crew for Tokyo qualified by winning the Americas Olympic Qualifying Regatta in March. They are another young combination, Felipe Kluver Ferreira raced at the U23 world Championships in 2019 with Alvar Silva finishing 10th. Bruno Cetraro Berriolo is more experienced, he raced in the LM2X at the 2015 World Championships aged just 17. In 2017 he raced at his 2nd World Championships in the LM2X finishing 18th, and then in 2019 he was in the LM1x in Linz finishing 30th.
Tokyo prospects: Likely to be towards the upper end of the C-Final, 13th or 14th.
Uzbekistan: Shakhboz Kholmurzaev (25) & Sobirjon Safaroliyev (19)
Tokyo will be Kholmurzaev’s 2nd Olympic Games. He raced in the M1X in Rio finishing 19th. This duo got to Tokyo after finishing 3rd at the Asia and Oceania Olympic qualifying Regatta. Kholmurzaev raced at the 2018 World Championships in the LM1x and then in 2019 went heavyweight, finishing 31st. Safaroliyev, the 2nd teenager in the event, raced in the JM2x at the Junior world Championships in 2019 finishing 19th.
Tokyo prospects: Likely to be somewhere in the middle of the C-Final – 14th or 15th.
Venezuela: Cesar Amaris (31) & Jose Guipe Jimenez (32)
6th at the Americas Qualifying Regatta was enough, thanks to crews ahead of them prioritising other boats, for the Venezuelans to qualify for Tokyo. This duo have been racing together for the last decade, they won bronze in the M2x at the 2011 Pan-American Games, and last raced at a World Rowing event at the Eton World Cup in 2013. Guipe raced at his 2nd Pan-American Games in Lima in 2019 finishing 10th in the M2X.
Tokyo prospects: likely to be another crew in the mix in the middle of the C-final. They will be hoping to beat their continental rivals from Chile and Uruguay.
Conclusions and Predictions:
Medal picks: really can’t see anyone beating the Irish to the gold. But the battle for silver and bronze is going to be really tight between Norway, Italy and Germany. I’m picking the Norwegians to get the silver and Germany to just edge out the Italians for the bronze.
