So here it is, the big one, the one all rowers want to race at, and for some, the culmination of years of training and dedication: it’s the Olympic Games. Finally, after months of uncertainty, it looks like the Games will happen. One thing’s for sure, these Games will be unlike any other in history. The venue is the Sea Forest Waterway, specially built for the Games and inaugurated in 2019. As the name suggests, it’s a coastal venue and has had its fair share of issues, from strong winds to oysters growing on the buoys. But when conditions are right, it’s a fantastic course.
As always, with my previews, I’ve tried to give a rundown of the form, experience and prospects of those competing. I hope that readers find this a valuable and exciting guide to those racing in Tokyo. If you have enjoyed what I write, perhaps you’d consider buying me a coffee via my Ko-Fi page https://ko-fi.com/X8X64ORYM
Current Standings:
Reigning champions: Great Britain (Scott Durant, Tom Ransley, Andy Hodge, Matt Gotrel, Pete Reed, Paul Bennett, Matt Langridge, Will Satch, Phelan Hill)
Rio Silver medal: Germany (Max Munski, Malte Jakschik, Andreas Kuffner, Eric Johannesen, Max Reinelt, Felix Drahotta, Richard Schmidt, Hannes Ocik, Martin Sauer)
Rio bronze medal: The Netherlands (Kaj Hendriks, Robert Luecken, Boaz Meylink, Boudewijn Roell, Olivier Siegelaar, Dirk Uittenbogaard, Michiel Versluis, Tone Wieten, Peter Wiersum)
Australia: Nicholas Lavery (23), Angus Widdicombe (26), Angus Dawson (20), Simon Keenan (28), Nick Purnell (31), Tim Masters (29), Josh Booth (30), Jack O’Brien (23), Stuart Sim (28)
Australia has never won the Olympic title in this boat and last won a medal in 2004. They failed to qualify the boat for Rio, and in London and Beijing, they placed 6th. The M8 is the 2nd ranked boat for the Aussies and is primarily based around the crew that won silver at the 2018 World Championships and was 4th in 2019. Both Josh Booth and Nick Purnell have significant Olympic experience, they were both in the M8 that finished 6th in London, and Booth raced in the M4- that won silver at the Rio Olympics. Purnell also raced in the M4- with Jack O’Brien in 2019 that slumped to 6th place. The Aussies also have a couple of senior debutants in the boat, Angus Dawson was U23 World Champion in the BM4+ in 2019, and Nick Lavery also raced at the 2019 U23’s.
Tokyo prospects: The Australians have, arguably, weakened this boat from 2019 to strengthen the M4-. Plus, as with almost all of the antipodean crews, they have had no international racing experience for two years. Therefore, it isn’t easy to see the Aussies making it to the podium and could well be the one crew to miss out on the A-Final.
Great Britain: Josh Bugajski (30), Jacob Dawson (27), Tom George (26), Mo Sbihi (33), Charlie Elwes (23), Ollie Wynne-Griffith (27), James Rudkin (27), Tom Ford (28), Henry Fieldman (32)
Great Britain is the defending champion in this event and went undefeated throughout the Rio Olympiad. However, during the Tokyo Olympiad, it looked like they would struggle to defend their title. Almost the entire Olympic M8 retired after Rio meaning chief coach Juergen Grobler had to rebuild his M8 almost from scratch. A very disappointing 7th in 2017, their worst performance at a World Championships since 1998, showed he had a real challenge on his hands. But, GB had a hugely talented U23 squad that were beginning to emerge in the seniors, and several athletes who had been on the fringe of the Rio team began to step up. The bronze in 2018 and 2019 was encouraging, but it still didn’t look like the British would be able to challenge for the gold. I remember commenting after the 2019 Worlds that I thought the GB squad as a whole (and the M8 in particular) were about 18 months behind where they needed to be at that stage of the Olympiad. Then, with the shock retirement of the legendary Grobler, things looked even bleaker for the British. But, one of the few silver linings of the pandemic and the Tokyo Games’ postponement is that the British M8 has had time to grow and develop, and they now look like true world-beaters. Only one member of the crew, Mo Sbihi, has any Olympic experience. The Rio M4- gold medallist, is, in fact, the only member of the GB men’s sweep team with any Olympic experience and there’s a massive weight on his substantial shoulders to act as the leader of the whole squad. Fortunately, he’s backed up by some outstanding athletes. The word is that the British M8 is one of the most powerful ever put together (if the rumours are true, then at least five members of the boat are sub-5:40 for 2K). Four of the crew went to university in the USA (Charlie Elwes and Olli Wynne-Griffith at Yale, Tom George and Princeton and Jacob Dawson at Washington). The British squad is beginning to feel the benefits from athletes spending time on the top US programmes. When GB returned to racing this season, the British had a massive point to prove, and they showed at the European Championships that they were strong contenders from among the European nations to challenge for gold in Tokyo. They followed up their win at the Europeans with another victory at the 2nd World Cup. They head into the Olympic regatta with the momentum on their side.
Tokyo prospects: if you’d asked me at the end of 2019, I would’ve said GB would be lucky to get a bronze medal. Now, they head to Tokyo as favourites for the gold, and I’m picking them to retain their title in Brazil.
Germany: Laurits Follert (25), Malte Jakschik (27), Torben Johannesen (26), Hannes Ocik (30), Olaf Roggensack (24), Richard Schmidt (34), Jakob Schneider (26), Johannes Weissenfeld (26), Martin Sauer (38)
Germany ended 2019 as overwhelming favourites for Tokyo. After taking silver behind the British in Rio, the Deutschlandachte stated ambition was to match the achievement of the British and go undefeated at every championship event throughout the Olympiad. That aim looked likely to be realised as they won every event they entered all the way through from 2017 to 2020, winning three World Championships and four European titles. But, at the start of 2021, things began to unravel a bit for the Germans. First, rumours of discord among the squad were followed by 4th at the European championships… the worst performance by a German M8 since the 2011 Europeans. Their problems were compounded by an injury to their most experienced athlete, Richard Schmidt, meaning he missed the 2nd and 3rd World Cups. However, the German’s performance at the Lucerne World Cup was better than at the Europeans, with a 2nd place behind the British (who were also racing with a substitute on board). Then in Sabaudia, they had a reasonably meaningless race against the Italian M8, which haven’t qualified for Tokyo. But, and it’s a reasonably big but, it would be a fool to completely write-off the Germans. They are a hugely experienced and (for the most part) a very settled crew (having made only one change to the line-up since the 2018 World Championships). Richard Schmidt, a three-time Olympian and gold medallist from London, returned to the crew during their pre-Olympic training camp. Three other crew members were silver medallists in Rio (Jakschik, Ocik and cox Martin Sauer).
Tokyo prospects: If the delay to the Olympics has benefitted the British, it’s been almost the complete opposite for the Germans; a year ago, they looked unstoppable, but now, for the first time in 4 years, they won’t be starting an M8 race as favourites. It’s entirely possible that they could miss the podium completely, but I think they will be in an honest scrap for the bronze medal. I can’t see them turning things around to get gold.
The Netherlands: Bjorn van den Ende (35), Bram Schwarz (33), Jasper Tissen (28), Maarten Hurkmans (23), Mechiel Versluis (33), Robert Luecken (36), Ruben Knab (33), Simon Van Dorp (24) Eline Berger (24).
The Netherlands have won the Olympic title once, back in Atlanta in 1996. They look to be another crew for whom the delay to the Olympics appears to have had a negative effect. The oldest crew in the event, with an average age of 29 (compared to GB and GER at 28), looked to have taken over the mantle from the British as Germany’s primary challengers. After a disappointing 7th in 2018, they restructured their crew for 2019 and won silver behind Germany at the World Championships. But, in both 2020 and 2021, at the Europeans, they were beaten into bronze by the young Romanians. The Netherlands, thanks to their sponsors, Red Bull, have been trying lots of different training techniques to improve their speed (including using a motor to simulate racing speed allowing the crew to train with the boat moving at race pace continuously: we’ll have to wait and see if that was just a gimmick or a stroke of genius. The crew includes three Rio Olympians, Mechiel Versluis and Robert Leucken from the bronze medal M8 and Bjorn van den Ende from the 11th placed LM4-. Also in the boat is Ruben Knab, a London Olympian who was 5th in the M4-. So the Netherlands have a vast amount of experience in their boat, but we’ve yet to see them deliver, and to my eyes, they are a solid mid-field crew, not a medal-winning one.
Tokyo prospects: As mentioned above, I don’t see them winning a medal…5th or 6th.
New Zealand: Tom Murray (27), Hamish Bond (35), Shaun Kirkham (28), Michael Brake (26), Daniel Williamson (21), Phillip Wilson (24), Tom Mackintosh (24), Matt Macdonald (22), Sam Bosworth (27)
It’s been 49 years since New Zealand won the Olympic M8 title, the first (& so far, only) nation outside of Europe and North America to do so. That 1972 crew is still revered in New Zealand rowing and Olympic circles, and there are high hopes that the crew for Tokyo can repeat that feat. Unfortunately, they’ve got to Tokyo the hard way; an agonising 6th at the 2019 World Championships meant they missed direct qualification by half a second. That meant they had to race at the Final Olympic Qualifying Regatta, made even more challenging by the pandemic restrictions. But, they came to Europe to run the FOQR and successfully secured the top spot, ahead of Romania, Italy and China. The Kiwis have made the bold decision to strengthen the M8 by moving their World Championship silver medal M2-, Tom Murray and Michael Brake, into the M8, in effect surrendering likely silver medal, to throw everything at the M8. The biggest name in the boat is Hamish Bond – a double Olympic medallist and one half of the legendary Kiwi Pair. The M8 project was enough of a draw to entice Bond to get off his bike and back in a boat. The New Zealanders are a relatively young crew, four of them are aged 24 or under, the youngest, Daniel Williamson, is just 21 (and currently studying at Yale).
Tokyo prospects: An undeniably talented crew, but apart from the FOQR, they’ve yet to make the podium at an international race. I can’t see this pattern changing in Tokyo… So I’m picking them for 4th at best.
Romania: Alexandru Chioseaua (23), Florin-Sorin Lehaci (22), Constantin Radu (25), Sergiu-Vasile Bejan, Vlad-Dragos Aicoboae (27), Constantin Adam (25), Florin-Nicolae Arteni-Fintinariu (20), Ciprian Huc (22), Adrian Munteneau (23)
Despite being the lowest-ranked crew in the event (courtesy of a 2nd place at the FOQR), the Romanians are my dark horse for this event. They are a young crew, with an average age of 23. Their oldest rower, Vlad-Dragos Aicoboae, is just 27 years old, and their youngest, Florin-Nicolae Arteni-Fintinariu, just 20. Despite their youth, they are a hugely talented and exciting crew to watch. The core of the crew was in the M8 that finished 7th in 2019. In 2020 they took silver at the European Championships behind Germany, and at this year’s Europeans, they pushed Great Britain to the line finishing just 8/10th of a second back. At the FOQR, they were beaten by New Zealand by just over a second. Both Aicobaoe and Constantin Adam raced in the M4- at the Rio Olympics, although they didn’t progress beyond the repechage.
Tokyo prospects: do I think the Romanians can pull off a shock win? In a word, no, but I think they will be pushing very, very hard for a medal, but may come up just short. So I’m picking 4th or 5th.
USA: Austin Hack (29), Justin Best (23), Liam Corrigan (23), Ben Davison (24), Conor Harrity (26), Nick Mead (26), Alex Miklasevich (23), Alexander Richards (25), Julian Venonsky (27)
The USA are the most prosperous nation in the Olympic M8 event, having won the gold 12 times (the most wins of one event by any country. But, only one of those victories has come in the last 50 years (Athens in 2004). The M8 is the Olympic event for the US men’s team; every other event is just a bonus, something to do while the eight isn’t racing. They’ve been 4th at the last two Olympics and were bronze medallists in 2008. Their crew for this year is another young boat, averaging just 25. Like the GB crew, they only have one athlete with previous Olympic experience, Austin Hack, who was in the eight that finished 4th in Rio. The bulk of the crew was in the boat that finished 5th in 2019; joining the crew are U23 World Champions, Alex Miklasevich from Brown University and Justin Best from Drexel. Harvard has three representatives in the crew, Liam Corrigan (one of two overseas Olympians who will be going up to Oxford next year – the other being Barnabe Delarze in the Swiss M2X), Conor Harrity and Alex Richards.
Tokyo Prospects: There’s always a lot of expectations and hype surrounding the US M8, this time, it may well be justified. I can see this crew battling for a medal, possibly even silver.
Conclusions & Predictions:
Medal Picks: Great Britain for the gold, the USA in silver, Germany in bronze and then Romania 4th, New Zealand 5th, The Netherlands 6th and Australia 7th.
cover image: British Rowing
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