So here it is, the big one, the one all rowers want to race at, and for some, the culmination of years of training and dedication: it’s the Olympic Games. Finally, after months of uncertainty, it looks like the Games will happen. One thing’s for sure, these Games will be unlike any other in history. The venue is the Sea Forest Waterway, specially built for the Games and inaugurated in 2019. As the name suggests, it’s a coastal venue and has had its fair share of issues, from strong winds to oysters growing on the buoys. But when conditions are right, it’s a fantastic course.
As always, with my previews, I’ve tried to give a rundown of the form, experience and prospects of those competing. I hope that readers find this a valuable and exciting guide to those racing in Tokyo. If you have enjoyed what I write, perhaps you’d consider buying me a coffee via my Ko-Fi page https://ko-fi.com/X8X64ORYM
Current Standings:
Reigning champions: Great Britain (Constantine Louloudis, Mo Sbihi, Alex Gregory, George Nash)
Rio Silver Medal: Australia (Will Lockwood, Josh Dunkley-Smith, Josh Booth, Alex Hill
Rio bronze medal: Italy (Domenico Montrone, Matteo Castaldo, Matteo Lodo, Guiseppe Vicino)
Australia: Alexander Purnell (26), Spencer Turrin (29), Jack Hargreaves (27) Alex Hill (28)
The Aussies have been the perennial “bridesmaids” in this event, taking silver at the last three Olympics and have won medals at 6 of the previous seven games. The crew tasked with claiming their nation’s first win in the event since the “Oarsome Foursome” of 1996 includes one of the Rio silver medal boats, Alex Hill. The Australians won the World Championships in 2017 with a crew that included three of the boat racing in Tokyo (Hill, Hargreaves & Turrin), a title they successfully defended in 2018. But in 2019, the wheels well and truly came off the Green & Gold machine when they finished back in 6th place, Australia’s worst performance at a World Championships since 2010. For 2019 they have replaced Josh Hicks with Alex Purnell. Purnell raced in the M8 at the 2017 World Championships and then switched to the quad for the 2018 season, winning a silver medal at World Championship. After 2 World Cups in the quad in 2019, he moved back into the M8 for the World Championships and helped Australia qualify the boat for Tokyo with 4th place. You can never discount an Australian M4- and this is their number 1 boat. Still, with no international racing experience for two years and their last international race being something of a disaster, it’s going to be interesting to see what challenge the Aussies present to the rest of the field.
Canada: Jakub Buczek (27), Luke Gadsdon (24), Gavin Stone (24) Will Crothers (34)
Canada last won a medal in this event in 2004, and the experienced Will Crothers leads their crew for Tokyo. He made his debut back in 2006, winning a silver medal in the M4+ (shows you just how long he’s been racing when the coxed four was still a World Championship event!). he was a member of the M8 that won silver at the London Olympics and then rowed in the M4- throughout the Rio Olympiad finishing 6th in the A-Final. The Canadians went back to their roots in 2019 and tried to qualify for the M8, an event that they’ve won Olympic gold in three times. But their attempt was ultimately unsuccessful when they failed to reach the A-Final. After that failure, they reverted to the M4- and qualified the boat with 2nd place at the Final Olympic Qualifying Regatta. Buczek and Stone were also in the M8 for 2019, and Gadsdon made his senior international debut at the FOQR after two years in the Canadian U23 team.
Tokyo prospects: 2nd at the FOQR makes them the lowest-ranked boat in the event, and I think it will take something rather special to make the A-Final. I’m predicting 8th or 9th.
Great Britain: Ollie Cook (31), Matt Rossiter (31), Rory Gibbs (27), Sholto Carnegie (26)
The M4- is Great Britain’s boat; you have to go back to Atlanta in 1996 for the last time GB didn’t win gold. That dominance has been built on developing crews with a core of the previous Olympic Champion boat. The winning crews in 2016, 2012, 2008 and 2004 all contained members of the boat which won the event at the last Olympics. You have to go back to 1992 to find a crew that doesn’t include a previous Olympic gold medallist and back to 1988 to find a GB M4- that didn’t contain an Olympic medallist. But, in Tokyo, that link will be well and truly broken. Tokyo will be the first Olympic Games for all four members of the British crew. Carnegie is the youngest of the crew and only made his senior international debut in 2018. He was a two-time U23 silver medallist and was educated at Yale University, where he was in the crew that scored back-to-back IRA Championships. Ollie Cook is the most experienced member of the crew and made his senior debut in 2012. He raced in the M2- at the 2013 World Championships and in 2016 won the World Championship M2+ gold with Callum McBrierty and Henry Fieldman. He raced in the M8 in 2017 before pairing up with former schoolmate Matt Rossiter in the pair for the 2018 World Championships. Rossiter’s career took a bit of a hiatus after a successful junior and U23 campaign when a severe back injury put him out of action for over two years. He slowly worked his way back to form and finally made his senior debut in 2017. He was selected for the M4- in 2017 and came away with a bronze medal, and then in 2018, he and Cook finished 8th in the pair. Gibbs is a product of the excellent Oxford Brookes programme and made his senior debut in 2019, when, along with Cook, Rossiter and Carnegie, the British won the M4- European Championship title. A bronze followed that at the World Championships in 2019. At that time, this crew looked like one with bags of potential but probably not gold medal material. However, the delay to the Olympics has been a blessing in disguise for this boat and, combined with coaching from Robin Williams, has turned this crew into genuine gold medal favourites.
Tokyo prospects: will start Tokyo as gold-medal favourites, and I reckon they will make it six wins in a row for the GB M4-.
Italy: Matteo Castaldo (35), Peppe Vicino (28), Matteo Lodo (26), Bruno Rosetti (33).
Italy last won the Olympic title in this event back in 1948. Still, they famously came within 3/10th of a second of winning their 2nd at the Sydney Olympics – and what a different story it would’ve been if they had (certainly for British rowing!) The Italians were bronze medallists in Rio, and their crew for Tokyo has three of that boat returning (Castaldo, Vicino and Lodo). This trio were also members of the M4- that won the World Championships in 2015. After Rio Lodo and Vicino raced in the M2- winning the World Championships in 2017 and taking 4th in 2019. They also raced in the pair for most of this season, winning silver behind the Croatians at the European Championships and then behind the Serbians at the 2nd World Cup. Rosetti and Castaldo have been racing in the M4- since 2018, taking silver at the World Championships and then 4th in 2019. This season they were 3rd at the European Championships and 4th in Lucerne. Finally, the crew as a four came back together for the Sabaudia World Cup and won gold. But, what will have caused some concern with that win, is that they had to work incredibly hard to overhaul a British development boat that led them through the 1500m mark despite rating nearly seven strokes a minute slower than the Italians. But a win is a win, and it’s always better to end your Olympic preparation with a W than an L.
Tokyo prospects: A hugely talented and experienced crew, full of Olympic medallists and former World Champions. But performances so far this season don’t look good enough to get them a medal in such a challenging field.
The Netherlands: Boudewijn Roell (32), Jan van der Bij (29), Nelson Ritsema (26) Sander Der Graaf (26)
A Dutch crew have never won an Olympic medal in this event; their best result was 4th in 1964. The crew is stroked by Nelson Ritsema, an U23 World Champion, back in 2016. He made his senior debut in 2017 and raced at his first Senior World Championships in 2019, finishing 7th in the M4- and qualifying the boat. Bodewijn Roell is the most experienced member of the crew, making his senior debut at the 2013 European Championships and rowed in the M8 throughout the Rio Olympiad, culminating in a bronze medal at the Games. After taking a break in 2017, he again rowed in the M8 in 2018 before moving into the M4- for the 2019 season. By comparison, der Graaf and Bij are relative newcomers to the senior team. Both made their senior debuts in 2018, and in 2019 they joined Roell, and Vincent Van der Want in the 7th placed M4-. In 2020 the Dutch won their first championships in this boat class since 2013 when they won the Europeans. So far this season, they’ve raced once, finishing just off the podium at the European Championships.
Tokyo prospects: An A-final finish will be an excellent result for the Dutch. 6th at best.
Poland: Mateusz Wilangowski (29), Mikolaj Burda (39), Marcin Brzezinski (37), Michal Szpakowski (32)
As big a surprise as Australia finishing 6th in 2019 was, an even bigger surprise was Poland winning the gold medal (their first-ever Olympic class win for the sweep men). The Poles are a hugely experienced crew (the oldest in the event). All four of the crew rowed in the M8 from 2014 onwards. And between them, they have 10 Olympic appearances. Burda has been rowing on the senior circuit for 20 years, and Tokyo will be his 5th Olympics. The best result for the Poles before the 2019 World Championships was a silver medal in the M8 at the 2017 Europeans. As an M8, the Poles were a very “hit and miss” crew; at their best, they were solid A-Final performers (without making a World Championship podium), but they could also be out the back of the B-Final. When the four was formed in 2018, they took 7th at the World Championships and then in 2019 won their first Championship medal in the M4- taking European silver before winning the surprise gold in Linz. 2020 saw them take another European Championship medal, and so far in 2021, they have silver from the Zagreb World Cup, made the A-Final in Lucerne and then won bronze in Sabaudia.
Tokyo prospects: They are a solid crew, but I think 2019 was a bit of a one-off for the Poles. They could well make the A-Final but will probably be challenging for the medals. 5th or 6th at best.
Romania: Mihaita-Vasile Tiganescu (23), Mugurel Semcuic (23), Stefan-Constantin Berariu (22), Cosmin Pascari (23).
At the other end of the age and experience scale to the Polish are the Romanians. Three of the crew (Berariu, Pascari and Tiganescu) were junior World Champions in the JM4- in 2016. Pascari and Tiganescu then raced in the U23 BM2- World Championships in 2017, winning the gold medal and then racing at the senior World Championships that year, finishing a superb 7th. The three Junior World Champions then raced in the U23 BM4- in 2018 with Ciprian Huc, taking another gold medal and followed that up with a senior European Championship win and an A-Final placing at the senior World Championships. In 2019 Huc was replaced by Semcuic and went on to win a superb world Championship silver medal behind the Poles (Romania’s first M4- World Championship medal since 1997). So far in 2021, they have won another European medal (silver) and took bronze at the Lucerne World Cup.
Tokyo prospects: Another strong A-Final contender and an outside chance of a medal, but I think they will just miss out.
South Africa: Sandro Torrente (23), Kyle Schoonbee (25), John Smith (31), Lawrence Brittain (30)
The South Africans earned their place in Tokyo with a win at the Final Olympic Qualifying Regatta. They are an exciting mix of youth and experience. John Smith was a member of the LM4- that won South Africa’s first-ever Olympic rowing gold medal at the London Olympics; in fact, Smith is the only Olympic gold medallist in the whole field. In 2014 Smith moved into the LM2X with James Thomspon and won gold at the World Championships. This double went on to finish 4th at the Rio Olympics. After Rio, Smith moved to the heavyweight squad and has raced in this boat throughout the Tokyo Olympiad. Lawrence Brittain is a former U23 World Champion and made his senior debut in 2011. He just missed out on qualification for the London Olympics but had no such trouble in 2016 when he and Shaun Keeling proved themselves to be the “Best of The Rest” behind the Kiwi Pair at the Rio Olympics. Schoonbee won U23 silver in the BM1X in 2017 and then made his senior debut the same year as South Africa’s M1X representative at the World Championships. He joined the M4- in 2018. Torrente, like Schoonbee, is a former U23 international who made his senior debut in 2017, finishing 14th in the M2-. He also moved into the M4- at the start of the 2018 season. The M4- didn’t really fire throughout 2018 and 2019, finishing towards the back of the B-Final on both occasions. But, their form so far in 2021 has shown them to be much more serious medal contenders. As well as winning the FOQR, they took silver in Lucerne, 4 seconds behind GB.
Tokyo prospects: They’ve shown a natural pace this season and should be capable of making the A-Final, and they have an outside chance of a medal.
Switzerland: Markus Kessler (29), Paul Jacquot (26), Joel Schuerch (27), Andrin Gulich (22)
Tokyo will be the first Olympics since LA in 1984 that Switzerland have qualified for the M4-. They did so by taking 8th at the 2019 World Championships – the final direct qualifying spot.
Markus Kessler is a former junior World Champion and raced in the M1X at the European Championships from 2014 to 2016. Paul Jacquot was a U23 bronze medallist in 2014 and moved to the senior team in 2018, racing in an M2- with Mario Gyr at the first two World Cups. At the 2018 World Championships, he and Kessler moved into the M4, Augustin Maillefer and Ben Hirsch took 11th overall. Schuerch is a former lightweight international and won the U23 BLM2- title in 2016. He joined Gyr in the M2- in 2018 coming 21st. Kessler, Schuerch and Jacquot raced with Maillefer in the M4- at the 2019 World Championships. For 2021 Gulich replaced Maillefer in the crew, he’s a former junior World Champion from 2017 and made his senior debut this season when the M4- finished 8th at the European Championships. The Swiss also raced at the 2nd and 3rd World Cups, finishing 8th in Lucerne and 6th in Sabaudia. What will have been of concern for the Swiss with the result in Sabaudia is that they were beaten two development crews from GB and another from the Netherlands.
Tokyo prospects: likely to be battling for 9th or 10th.
USA: Anders Weiss (28), Clark Dean (21), Michael Grady (24), Andrew Reed (29)
It’s been 60 years since the USA last won Olympic gold in the M4- event, and they last won a World Championship medal in this boat in 2014. They qualified for Tokyo with 5th place at the 2019 World Championships (an improvement on their results in 2017 and 2018 when the USA placed 10th and 13th, respectively). The hugely talented Clark Dean strokes the crew. The Harvard student is a two-time junior World Champion in the JM1X and made his senior debut stroking the M4- at the World Championships. Weiss, a Brown University graduate, won silver at the 2013 U23 World Championships and made his senior debut at the Rio Olympics, finishing 11th in the M2-. He continued in the M2- at the World Championships in 2017-2019, placing 11th in 2017 and then racing in the C-Final in 2018 and 2019. Grady, from Cornell University, is a U23 World Champion from 2018, and before this season had one senior appearance when he raced in the M8 at the 2nd World Cup of 2018. The 4th member of the crew is Andrew Reed. The 2nd Harvard University-educated athlete in the crew, he made his debut in 2017, winning a silver medal in the M8 at the World Championships. He raced in the M4- with Dean in 2019.
Tokyo prospects: The US have high expectations for this boat, but as with several non-European crews, the lack of international racing experience since 2019 won’t have helped their preparation. This crew can make the A-Final, but I can’t see them challenging for the medals.
Conclusions & Predictions:
Medal Picks: going to be a GB v AUS battle for the gold (for the 4th Games in a row). The momentum is with GB, and they are getting better every time they race. GB in gold, with Australia in silver and the bronze going to South Africa.
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