So here it is, the big one, the one all rowers want to race at, and for some, the culmination of years of training and dedication: it’s the Olympic Games. Finally, after months of uncertainty, it looks like the Games will happen. One thing’s for sure, these Games will be unlike any other in history. The venue is the Sea Forest Waterway, specially built for the Games and inaugurated in 2019. As the name suggests, it’s a coastal venue and has had its fair share of issues, from strong winds to oysters growing on the buoys. But when conditions are right, it’s a fantastic course.
As always, with my previews, I’ve tried to give a rundown of the form, experience and prospects of those competing. I hope that readers find this a valuable and exciting guide to those racing in Tokyo. If you have enjoyed what I write, perhaps you’d consider buying me a coffee via my Ko-Fi page https://ko-fi.com/X8X64ORYM
Current Standings:
Reigning Champions: New Zealand (Eric Murray & Hamish Bond)
Rio Silver medal: South Africa (Sean Keeling & Lawrence Brittain)
Rio Bronze medal: Italy (Giovanni Abagnale & Marco di Constanzo)
Australia: Sam Hardy (25) & Josh Hicks (30)
Bronze medallists from the 2019 World Championships. The biggest challenge faced by this pair, and all antipodean crews, is the lack of international racing experience for the last two years. A former Harvard Varsity oarsman, Hicks made his senior international debut in 2014 and raced in the M8 that missed qualification for the Rio Olympics. In 2017 he moved into the M4- which went on to win the World Championships (Australia’s first win in the event since 1991). The crew successfully defended their title in 2018, and in 2019, the crew was broken up to try and qualify more boats for Tokyo. Hardy is another Harvard-educated Aussie and, like Hicks, a member of Sydney Rowing Club. He spent three years on the Australian U23 team, winning a bronze medal in the BM4+ in 2016. He made his senior debut in 2019 when he formed a pair with Hicks. They finished 7th in their first international race at the 3rd World Cup in Rotterdam but improved significantly by the time of the Linz World Championships, where they secured qualification for Tokyo and made the podium.
Tokyo prospects: with no international racing since 2019, it will be very tough on the Aussies, but they have the pedigree to reach the A-Final comfortably and are outside contenders for a medal.
Belarus: Dzmitry Furman (31) Sairhei Valadzko (28)
Belarus secured qualification at the Tokyo Olympics by finishing 11th in 2019 – the last direct qualification spot available. Both Valadzko and Furman stated their senior international careers at the 2014 European Championships – Valadzko in the M2- that finished 13th and Furman the M8 that was 6th. Furman raced in the M2- with Dzianis Suravets in 2015 and 2016 but failed to secure qualification for Rio. Valadzko raced the non-Olympic M2+ at the 2015 World Championships, and in 2017 he and Furman formed their pairs partnership. 10th at the 2017 World Championships was followed in 2018 by their first World Cup medal-winning bronze at the 1st World Cup. They finished back in 11th at the World Championships that year, and then in 2019, they consistently finished in the B-Final throughout the World Cup series and another 11th in Linz. So far this season, they have recorded 9th place at the Europeans and two A-Final placings at the 1st and 2nd World Cups.
Tokyo prospects: 12th or 13th
Canada: Kai Langerfeld (33) & Conlin McCabe (30)
McCabe won World Championship age-group medals at both junior and U23 level before making his senior international debut in 2009, finishing 4th in the coxed pair. In 2010 he moved into the M8 and rowed in that boat for the next two seasons culminating in a silver medal at the London Olympics. After the London Olympics, Rowing Canada decided to move away from the M8 to try and maximise their medal haul at the Rio Games. McCabe moved to the M4- and the crew were consistent A-finalists but couldn’t make the podium. In Rio, they also reached the A-Final, where they finished 6th.
Langerfeld made his debut at the 2012 World Championships, winning a bronze medal in the coxed pair. He also rowed in the M4- during the Rio Olympiad with McCabe. Langerfeld remained in the M4- for 2017, finishing 8th, and McCabe tried his hand at sculling, forming a M2X with Matt Buie. However, neither boat was particularly successful, and in 2019 Langerfeld and McCabe formed a pair with the aim of Olympic Qualification, a target they achieved with an 8th place finish.
Tokyo prospects: mid-B-Final….7th or 8th
Croatia: Martin Sinkovic (31) & Valent Sinkovic (32)
Probably the hottest favourites of any of the heavyweight men’s events. The Sinkovic brothers aim to become the first athletes to win the Olympic gold in both the M2X and M2- events. They were both members of an outstanding young quad (with Damir Martin and David Sain) that won the U23 and Senior World Championship titles in 2010. They successfully defended their World title in 2011, and at the 2012 Olympics, they won silver. The quad won its 3rd senior World title in 2013, but in 2014, injury forced David Sain out of the boat. Damir Martin moved to the single, and the brothers formed what would become the fastest M2X of all time. As an M2X, Martin and Valent went unbeaten from 2014 through to winning Olympic gold in Rio. On the way, they became the first M2X to break the 6-minute barrier during a heat of the 2014 World Championships. Having achieved all they could in the M2X, they set themselves the challenge of winning the M2- in Tokyo. Their first World Championships in the pair ended with silver, but in 2018 they secured the first of two M2- World titles (their 6th in total). It hasn’t been the easiest of transitions for the brothers, with injuries hampering their 2019 season. But they can deliver the results when it matters. So far in 2021, they have had an unbeaten season, winning their 5th European title and taking gold at both the 1st and 3rd World Cups.
Tokyo prospects: It’ll be a major upset if the Croatians don’t win the Olympic gold and win it in some style.
Denmark: Joachim Sutton (26) & Fred Vystavel (27)
Both Sutton and Vystavel went to University in the USA, Sutton at Cal and Vystavel at Princeton. Vystavel was educated at Eton and represented Great Britain at the Junior World Championships in 2011, winning a silver medal in the JM8. He made his senior debut for Denmark in 2019 rowing in the M4- that finished 16th. Sutton raced on the Danish Junior and U23 teams from 2012 – 2014 and made his senior debut in 2017, finishing 5th in the M4- at the World Championships. In 2019 he raced to 15th place in the M2- with Bastian Secher, before coming together in a pair with Vystavel in 2020. The pair made an immediate impact at the European Championships, becoming the first Danish M2- to reach a championship A-Final since 1979. They produced a superb race at the Final Olympic Qualifying Regatta to take the 2nd spot and qualify the boat for the first time since Beijing.
Tokyo prospects: if they race as they did at the FOQR, they could reach the A-Final well, although I think it’s more likely they will be towards the front of the B-Final….I’m going for 6th or 7th.
France: Guillaume Turlan (24) & Thibaud Turlan (24)
The 2nd set of brothers in the event, the Turlan twins, have gained selection ahead of the Onfroy brothers, who had qualified for the boat in 2019. An expected showdown between the two sets of brothers at this year’s Lucerne World Cup never materialised as the Onfroy’s withdrew through injury. This left the way clear for the Turlan’s to get selected for Tokyo. They made their senior debuts at the 2nd World Cup of 2017, finishing 6th (in a race won by the Onfroy’s). They won U23 silver later that year and in 2019 raced in the French M4- at the European Championships and then the quad at the World Championships. In 2021 they were selected as the M2- for the European Championships reaching the A-Final. They raced at both the first two World Cups winning their first senior medal with silver behind the Sinkovic’s in Zagreb, and followed that up with a 5th place in Lucerne.
Tokyo prospects: another mid-B-Final crew. I’m predicting 8th or 9th.
Italy: Giovanni Abagnale (26) Marco Di Costanzo (29)
This duo were bronze medallists at the Rio Olympics, a feat Abagnale achieved whilst still only 21 (he went on to race in the Italian U23 BM8 later that year). He made his senior debut whilst still a teenager in 2014, winning a bronze medal in the M4- at the European Championships. He went on to win U23 gold and raced at the Senior World Championships that year as well. Di Costanzo debuted in 2012 and finished 6th in the M2- in 2014. He was also in the U23 BM4- with Abagnale that won gold. In 2015 he was selected in the M4- that won the World Championships and then went into the pair for Rio. Since the Olympics, Di Costanzo and Abagnale have been racing together as members of the M4-, winning gold at the Europeans in 2017 and then World Championship silver in 2017. In 2018 Di Costanzo won another World Championship silver in the M4- with Abagnale moving into the M8 before returning to the M4- again for 2019 when they finished 4th. They remained in the M4 for most of this season, taking 4th at the Europeans and the Lucerne World Cup. Then, they moved into the pair for the Sabaudia World Cup (their first M2- race together since Rio) and finished 4th. What will have been of concern with this result is that they were beaten by both the British and Croatian U23 crews and were some 10 seconds behind the Sinkovic’s. Some of this could be put down to rustiness, having not raced the pair together for so long, but it’s not a great way to finish your last race before the Olympics.
Tokyo prospects: With the M4- being the top Italian sweep boat, the pair is something of a consolation, and they will need a significant improvement to repeat their medal from Rio.
The Netherlands: Guillaume Krommenhoek (29) & Niki Van Sprang (28)
The Dutch secured their place in Tokyo by winning the Final Olympic Qualifying Regatta (7/100th ahead of the Danes). Krommenhoek, a member of the ASK Skoll club, made his international debut in 2017 rowing in the M4X at the 1st World Cup. He raced in the M1X at World Cups of 2019 and in 2020 formed a pair with Van Sprang taking 4th at the European Championships. Van Sprang is another US-educated athlete having rowed at the University of California. He also made his debut in the 2017 World Cup quad but moved into the M2X for the World Championships, finishing 12th. In 2018 he was again in the double and narrowly missed qualifying for the A-Final. He repeated his 7th place at the 2019 Worlds, thus qualifying that boat for Tokyo. But, in 2020, the pair with Krommenhoek was formed. So far this season, as well as 1st at the FOQR, they have recorded 5th place at the European Championships.
Tokyo prospects: Unlikely to be challenging for a medal, but an A-Final placing is a strong possibility.
New Zealand: Stephen Jones (28) & Brook Robertson (27)
The Kiwis are the defending World Championship silver medallists. Still, earlier this year, the selectors took the brave decision to move their silver medal pair (Tom Murray and Michael Brake) into the M8. So, in their place comes Stephen Jones and Brook Robertson. Both Jones and Robertson have spent their entire international careers racing together in the M8. They were both members of the U23 BM8 that won back-to-back World Championship titles in 2013 and 2014 and finished a creditable 4th at the Senior World Championships in 2015. The crew finished 6th at the Rio Olympics and again finished 6th at the 2017 World Championships. 9th in 2018 was followed by the worst position at the final World Championships of an Olympiad, 6th when only the top 5 qualified for the Olympics. So, when the selectors decided to strengthen the M8 for the FOQR, it was Robertson and Jones who had to make way. They face the daunting prospects of defending the title won by the legendary Eric Murray and Hamish Bond – no mean task!
Tokyo prospects: Their speed in the pair is a real unknown quantity, but they have a strong pedigree. But I’m going to have to predict a B-Final place.
Romania: Marius-Vasile Cozmuic (28) & Ciprian Tudosa (24)
Romania last won the Olympic M2- title back in 1984, and whilst I don’t think they will repeat that feat in 2021, their crew of Marius-Vasile Cozmuic and Ciprian Tudosa have a real chance of winning their countries first medal in this event since 1988.
Cozmuic was Junior World Champion in 2010, and that junior crew went on to race at the Senior European Championships that year, finishing a very creditable 10th. After that, he moved into the senior M4- for 2012 and qualified the boat for the London Olympics. His 1st senior medal came later that year when the M4- won silver at the European Championships, which they repeated in 2013. The M4- also qualified for the Rio Olympics after finishing 11th at the 2015 World Championships, but they failed to progress beyond the repechage.
Tudosa is a junior and Youth Olympic champion and made his senior debut in 2016. He rowed in the M4- (with Cozmuic) that won silver at the 2017 Europeans and moved into the M8 for the Worlds that year. Tudosa and Cozmuic formed their pair at the start of the 2018 season, winning bronze at the European Championships and then going one better at the Worlds. In 2019 they repeated their European bronze medal but couldn’t match their 2018 performance at the World Championships, ending up 10th. However, in 2020 they won their first M2- title, taking gold at the Europeans. So far this season, they have a 4th at the Europeans and a bronze medal in Lucerne.
Tokyo prospects: They should make the A-Final and have an outside chance of a medal.
South Africa: Jake Green (26) & Luc Daffarn (23)
South Africa have a strong tradition in this event, silver medallists in Rio and bronze medallists in Athens, they were also A-Finalists in Beijing and Sydney. Hoping to continue that trend are Jake Green and Luc Daffarn. Green started his international career with 5th place in the M2+ in 2015. He then moved into the M4- for the Rio Olympics, just missing out on a podium place. He remained in the M4- for 2017 and then raced the M2- with Lawrence Brittain in 2018, finishing 10th. After that, he moved back into the M4- in 2019, finishing 12th. Changes to the line-up in the M4- for 2021 saw him move into the M2- where Luc Daffarn joins him. Daffarn raced at the U23 World Championships between 2017 and 2019 with the best result of 4th in the BM2- in 2019. He and Green came together as a pair at the start of this season and raced at the Lucerne World Cup, finishing 8th.
Tokyo prospects: They need a significant improvement from their performance in Lucerne to make an impact in Tokyo. I expect them to be towards the back of the B-Final.
Spain: Jaime Canlejo Pazos (29) & Javier Garcia Ordonez (29)
These athletes made their senior international debuts at the 2013 European Championships after several seasons on the junior and U23 national teams. Canalejo Pazos rowed in the M8 that finished 7th, and Garcia Ordonez was in the M4- that placed 5th. Canalejo Pazos joined Garcia Ordonez in the M4- for the 2014 World Championships, and in 2015 they won their first senior medal with a silver medal at the 1st World Cup (Spain’s first medal in that event since 2009). 4th at the 2016 FOQR meant they missed qualification for Rio, and after finishing 7th in 2017, the two of them formed an M2-. Asa coxless pair, this duo has been remarkably consistent, making the A-Final at every race in 2018 and 2019, including a bronze medal at the 1st World Cup of 2019 and another bronze at the European Championships (Spain’s first Championship medal in the M2- since 2012). This season they continued in the medal-winning form at the 1st World cup taking bronze behind Croatia and
France. However, at the Lucerne World Cup, their run of A-Final appearances ended when they were pushed into the B-Final.
Tokyo prospects: Could well make the A-Final but unlikely to be challenging for the medals.
Serbia: Martin Mackovic (25) & Milos Vasic (30)
Mackovic spent four years on the Serbian U23 team racing in a pair with Viktor Pivac. This duo won gold in 2016 and a further three U23 medals. They also raced at the senior World Championships in the coxed pair in 2015, coming away with a bronze medal.
Vasic spent two years on the Serbian Junior team in 2008 and 2009 before making his senior international debut whilst still a teenager in 2010, winning a World Cup silver medal in the M4-. He remained in the M4- throughout the London Olympiad, culminating in a 10th place finish at the Games. After two more seasons in the M4- he moved into the M2- with Nenad Bedik in 2015, winning Serbia’s first-ever World Championship Olympic class medal. They represented Serbia at the Rio Olympics, finishing 10th (after capsizing under challenging conditions in their heat).
Mackovic and Vasic came together in the pair at the start of the 2019 season, winning gold at the first World Cup and ending the season 7th at the World Championships. They’ve had an excellent 2021 so far, taking bronze at the European Championships and gold at the Lucerne World Cup.
Tokyo prospects: A-Finalists and will definitely be challenging for a medal. The Serbs may well be the “best of the rest”, with the Croatians as the overwhelming favourites.
Conclusions & Predictions:
Medal picks: Croatia comfortably in gold, Serbia in silver and Australia in bronze.
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