So here it is, the big one, the one all rowers want to race at, and for some, the culmination of years of training and dedication: it’s the Olympic Games. Finally, after months of uncertainty, it looks like the Games will happen. One thing’s for sure, these Games will be unlike any other in history. The venue is the Sea Forest Waterway, specially built for the Games and inaugurated in 2019. As the name suggests, it’s a coastal venue and has had its fair share of issues, from strong winds to oysters growing on the buoys. But when conditions are right, it’s a fantastic course.
As always, with my previews, I’ve tried to give a rundown of the form, experience and prospects of those competing. I hope that readers find this a valuable and exciting guide to those racing in Tokyo. If you have enjoyed what I write, perhaps you’d consider buying me a coffee via my Ko-Fi page https://ko-fi.com/X8X64ORYM
Current Standings:
Reigning Champions: The USA (Emily Regan, Kerry Simmonds, Amanda Polk, Lauren Schmetterling, Tessa Gobbo, Meghan Musnicki, Ellie Logan, Amanda Elmore, Katelin Snyder)
Rio Silver Medallists: Great Britain (Katie Greves, Melanie Wilson, Frances Houghton, Polly Swann, Jess Eddie, Olivia Carnegie-Brown, Karen Bennett, Zoe Lee, Zoe de Toledo)
Rio Bronze Medallists: Romania (Roxana Cogianu, Ioana Strungaru, Mihaela Petrila, Iuliana Popa, Madalina Beres, Laura Oprea, Adelina Bogus, Andreea Boghian, Daniela Druncea
Australia: Genevieve Horton (26), Olympia Aldersey (28), Bronwyn Cox (24), Girogia Patten (22), Sarah Hawe (33), Georgia Rowe (28), Katrina Werry (27), Molly Goodman (28), James Rook (23)
Australia were last-minute additions to the Rio Olympics following the disqualification of the Russians. Unsurprisingly they didn’t progress beyond the repechage. 2021 however, is a very different ball game. Australia has medalled at the last two World Championships, securing their place by right at the Games. The selectors have made wholesale changes to the crew that finished in silver medal position in Linz, with only four of the crew remaining for Tokyo (Cox, Rowe, Goodman and coxswain Rook). Three of the 2019 World Champion W4 are coming into the crew (Aldersey, Hawe and Werry). The other crew members are Genevieve Horton, who raced in the W2X at the Rio Olympics, the 2019 Worlds finishing 11th, and senior international debutant Giorgia Patten. Patten won silver in the BW2X at the 2019 U23 World Championships.
Tokyo prospects: The boat is arguably more robust than in 2019, so it must be considered a medal contender. However, history is against Australia as they’ve never finished higher than 5th at an Olympic Games. Possible bronze medal.
Canada: Lisa Roman (31), Kasia Gruchalla-Wesierski (30), Andrea Proske (35), Christine Roper (31(, Susanne Grainger (30), Madison Mailey (24), Sydney Payne (23), Avalon Wasteneys (23), Kristen Kit (32)
Canada is one of only four nations to have won Olympic gold in the W8; they did so back in 1992. They secured their spot for Tokyo with 4th place in 2019, and they have six of that crew returning (Roma, Gruchalla-Wesierski, Roper, Grainger, Wasteneys & Kit). The core of the crew (Grainger, Roman and Roper) have been rowing together in the eight since 2013 and, in that time, have secured five World Championship medals (3 silvers and two bronze). In addition, Madison Mailey and Sydney Payne raced together in the U23 BW8 in 2017 and 2018, winning gold; they also raced in the senior W8 that won silver in 2018. The only member of the crew without any previous international experience in the W8 is Andrea Proske. She’s spent her entire senior racing career in the W2X, finishing 6th and 4th in 2019.
Tokyo prospects: Canada always produces strong eights; whether it’s strong enough to get a medal remains to be seen, I think they will miss out, and I’m placing them 5th.
China: Zifeng Wang (23), Yuwei Wang (30), Fei Xu (27), Tian Miao (28), Min Zhang (28), Rui Ju (28), jingling Li (27), Linlin Guo (28), Dechang Zhang (42)
China last qualified a W8 for the Olympics at Athens in 2004. They got to Tokyo the hard way, having to race at the Final Olympic Qualifying Regatta. They won that comfortably ahead of Romania and looked very impressive in doing so. They only have three members of the 2019 crew that finished 7th (Xu, Miao and Guo). Miao and Min Zhang raced in the W2- at the Rio Olympics, and Yuwei Zhang is another Rio Olympian, having finished 6th in the W4X. Zifeng Wang was a U23 bronze medallist in 2018 and, along with Min Zhang, raced in the W4- in 2019, finishing 9th.
Tokyo prospects: The Chinese look like a classic example of the whole being more significant than the sum of the parts. Their pedigree is nothing spectacular, but their performance at the FOQR showed that they have some great speed. I’m not sure they are quick enough to get a medal, but it won’t be far off; I’m picking them for 4th.
Great Britain: Fiona Gammond (28), Sara Parfett (29), Emily Ford (26), Rebecca Muzerie (31), Caragh McMurtry (29), Katherine Douglas (31), Rebecca Edwards (27), Chloe Brew (25), Matilda Horn (28)
Great Britain made history in Rio, winning their first W8 Olympic medal. But, the only member of that crew still racing is Karen Bennett, and she’s in the W4-. Since winning that historic silver in Rio, the British have struggled to find a genuinely competitive combination on the world stage. They qualified for Tokyo with 5th place in Linz, and this season they finished 4th at the Europeans. But, the performance in Varese at the Europeans will have given some cause for concern; they were beaten into 4th by two crews who haven’t qualified for Tokyo and were some 9 seconds behind the winners from Romania (the only other Olympic crew). Some rumours came out of the British final training camp that all is not well with this crew, and they were not performing as well as a crew with their pedigree should be. These rumours suggest that they have replaced their coach just a couple of weeks before the Games start in a desperate bid to try and find some inspiration to give them the speed to match their potential.
Tokyo prospects: This crew has the potential to do well, possibly even medal. But on current form, that looks like something of a pipe dream. So as much as it pains me to say it, I think the British will miss out on the A-Final (although I dearly hope they prove me wrong).
New Zealand: Ella Greenslade (24), Emma Dyke (26), Lucy Spoors (30), Kelsey Bevan (31), Kirstyn Goodger (30), Phoebe Spoors (27), Beth Ross (24), Jackie Gowler (25), Caleb Shepherd (28).
New Zealand is the reigning World Champion and will head into Tokyo as firm favourites. In 2019 the world Champion W2- of Grace Prendergast and Kerri Gowler doubled-up in the eight and pair, winning both. Whilst they haven’t been named in the official entries, it’s likely, they will also double-up in Tokyo (in place of Kirstyn Goodger and Phoebe Spoors), but that remains to be seen. Rio was the first time New Zealand had qualified a W8 for the Olympics, and they just missed out on the medals. Bronze in 2017 was followed by a disappointing 2018, where they missed the A-final. 2019 was a different matter, and they dominated the final, winning by nearly 3 seconds in the first-ever Antipodean 1-2. Assuming Prendergast and Kerri Gowler do come back into the boat, then it will be unchanged from the gold medal crew of 2019
Tokyo prospects: Even without Prendegast and Gowler, the kiwis would start as favourites; if they double-up, I can’t see anyone beating them.
Romania: Maria-Magdalena Rusu (21), Viviana-Iuliana Bejinariu (27), Georgiana Dedu (25), Maria Tivodariu (22), Ioana Vrînceanu (27), Amalia Beres (24), Madalina Beres (28), Denisa Tîlvescu (24), Daniela Druncea (30)
Romania is the only crew to have competed at every Olympics in the W8. Unfortunately, they got to Tokyo the hard way; they had to race at the final Olympic Qualifying Regatta, finishing 2nd to the Chinese and securing the last spot at the Olympics. As a result, they had to go via the FOQR after 6th place at the 2019 World Championships – the worst ever result for a Romanian W8. But, the Romanians have a strong pedigree in this boat; four of the crew (Bejinariu, Vrinceneau, Madalina Beres and Denisa Tilvescu) were World Champions in 2017 and European Champions in 2018. Only three members of the 6th placed 2019 crew retain their places, Rusu, Bejinariu and Tivodariu. At a European Championship level, the Romanians are almost totally dominant, they have 13 out of the last 15 European Championships, and this line-up added both the 2020 and 2021 European titles. 2nd at the FOQR was enough to secure qualification, but they probably would’ve hoped to have pushed the Chinese harder.
Tokyo prospects: On paper, they are the lowest-ranked crew, but they are the fastest European crew, but in such a robust global field, I think that’ll only be good enough for 6th place.
USA: Regina Salmons (24), Jessica Thoennes (25), Kristine O’Brien (29), Gia Doonan (27), Brooke Mooney (25), Meghan Musnicki (38), Charlotte Buck (26), Olivia Coffey (32), Katelin Guregian (33)
The USA are the most prosperous nation in the women’s eight at the Olympics, winning the last three games. From a World Championships perspective, they are also the most successful nation, winning 9 of the last 11 World Championships. They qualified for Tokyo with a bronze medal placing at the 2019 World Championships. They are led by two-time Olympic and five-time World Champion Meghan Musnicki. She’s joined by four members of the 2018 World Championship gold medal crew (Kristine O’Brien, Gia Doonan, Olivia Coffey and Katelin Guregian). Regina Salmons and Jessica Thoennes are U23 medallists and made their senior debuts in the W4- at the Lucerne World Cup in 2019. The crew also includes one senior debutant, Charlotte Buck, from Columbia University.
Tokyo prospects: You can never discount a US W8, especially at an Olympic Games. But, whether this crew has the firepower to defeat the Kiwis remains to be seen. I think they will come up just short and get silver.
Conclusions and Predictions:
Medal picks: in most other events, the non-European crews are at a disadvantage, having not had an opportunity to race internationally this season. But, in the women’s 8, this is less of an issue; there were no W8 races at the World Cups for the first time. So, New Zealand, Canada, Australia and the USA are much more of a level playing field than in other events. So, I’m going for New Zealand to win their first-ever Olympic W8 medal, and that medal will be gold. In silver, I’m going for the USA and in bronze Australia.
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