So here it is, the big one, the one all rowers want to race at, and for some, the culmination of years of training and dedication: it’s the Olympic Games. Finally, after months of uncertainty, it looks like the Games will happen. One thing’s for sure, these Games will be unlike any other in history. The venue is the Sea Forest Waterway, specially built for the Games and inaugurated in 2019. As the name suggests, it’s a coastal venue and has had its fair share of issues, from strong winds to oysters growing on the buoys. But when conditions are right, it’s a fantastic course.
As always, with my previews, I’ve tried to give a rundown of the form, experience and prospects of those competing. I hope that readers find this a valuable and exciting guide to those racing in Tokyo. If you have enjoyed what I write, perhaps you’d consider buying me a coffee via my Ko-Fi page https://ko-fi.com/X8X64ORYM
Current Standings:
Reigning Champions (from the Barcelona Olympics in 1992): Canada (Kirsten Barnes, Jessica Monroe, Brenda Taylor, Kay Worthington)
Silver medallists: USA (Shelagh Donohoe, Cynthia Eckhert, Carol Feeney, Amy Fuller)
Bronze medallists: Germany (Antje Frank, Annette Hohn, Gabriele Mehl, Brite Siech)
Australia: Lucy Stephan (29), Rosemary Popa (29), Jessica Morrison (29), Annabelle McIntyre (24).
Since it was announced that the W4- was returning to the Olympics, the Australians have been the dominant nation. They are the reigning World Champions and also won gold in 2017 and silver in 2018. Only bow Lucy Stephan remains from the 2019 crew. As mentioned in the W2- preview, Jessica Morrison and Annabelle McIntyre are doubling up in that event. Morrison, McIntyre and Popa were all members of the 2019 W8 that won silver at the World Championships. Popa also raced in the 2018 W8 that won bronze. Stephan and Morrison were both members of the W8 that raced in Rio.
Tokyo prospects: With their performances at the last 3 World Championships, the Aussies will start as favourites for Tokyo. Definitely on the hunt for the medals.
Canada: Jennifer Martins (32), Kristina Walker (25), Stephanie Grauer (24), Nicole Hare (26)
Canada last won a medal in this event with a silver in 2013, before it was announced that the W4- would be returning to the Olympics. But they are, as mentioned above, the reigning Olympic Champions, having won gold on the only previous occasion the W4- was an Olympic event back in 1992 at Barcelona. This year’s crew is primarily made up of athletes who were members of the Canadian W8 that won silver at the 2018 World Championships (Martins, Grauer & Hare).
Both Martins and Hare raced in Rio, finishing 14th in the W2-. Kristina Walker makes her senior debut in Tokyo. She started rowing as a freshman at the University of British Columbia and competed at the FISU World Championships, winning silver in the W2X. The Canadian W4- finished 8th at the 2019 World Championships securing the final direct qualification spot. Two of the 2019 crew, Martins and Grauer, retain their seats in the boat.
Tokyo prospects: Canada’s best result at a World Championships in this event in recent years was 5th in 2104. Not sure they will quite have the speed to make the A-Final. I think a repeat of their 2019 World Championships finish of 8th is more likely.
China: Miaomiao Qin (24), Fei Wang (33), Xinyu Lin (26), Shiyu Lu (22)
China missed out on direct qualification for this event by one spot at the 2019 World Championships when they finished 3rd in the B-Final behind Great Britain and Canada. They secured their spot in Tokyo with 2nd place at the FOQR, and as such, are the lowest-ranked boat in the event. The Chinese only have one member of the 2019 boat in their line-up for Tokyo, Fei Wang. She was also in the W4- which finished 6th in 2018. Miaomiao Qin was in the W8 in 2018 and 2019, and Xinyu Lin raced in the W2- in those years, reaching the A-Final on both occasions. The fourth member of the crew is Shiyu Lu; she made her senior international debut in 2019 racing in the W2X.
Tokyo prospects: China last won a World Championship medal in this event in 2014, and I can’t see this crew adding an Olympic medal to their nations tally. Indeed I think it’ll be unlikely that they make the A-Final. 9th or 10th.
Denmark: Trine Dahl Pedersen (24), Cristina Johansen (29), Frida Nielsen (22), Ida Jacobsen (26)
The core of this crew raced in this boat in 2019, winning bronze at the World Championships; the only difference for 2021 is that Trine Dahl Pedersen replaces Hedvig Rasmussen. The Danes raced at the 2020 Europeans in their 2019 line-up and just missed out on a medal. In 2021, with Dahl Pedersen now in the boat, they made a relatively slow start with 8th at the European Championships. They also raced at both the Lucerne and Sabaudia World Cups. Lucerne was a relative disappointment as they finished 6th of the six entries, 3 seconds adrift of a Romanian 2nd boat in 5th. Sabaudia was a marked improvement seeing the Danes take 2nd behind the Netherlands and ahead of the Poles.
Tokyo prospects: 2019 showed the Danes are a medal potential crew; it took them a bit of time to find their real speed following the line-up change. Still, after the encouraging performance in Sabaudia, they are certainly capable of making the A-Final, although they could just as easily miss out. I think they will be either 6th or 7th.
Great Britain: Rowan McKellar (27), Harriet Taylor (27), Karen Bennett (32), Rebecca Shorten (27)
Great Britain decided for 2019 to prioritise the W4- over the W8. Consequently, the four strongest athletes from the eight that won European silver in 2019 have been moved across to the W4-. The most experienced crew member is Karen Bennett, a silver medallist from the Rio Olympic W8. She’s been a member of the senior GB squad since 2015, and as well as being an Olympic silver medallist, she was also a European champion in 2016. Rowan McKellar and Hattie Taylor rowed together in the U23 BW4- in 2016 and were members of the senior W4- that finished 7th in 2017. The stroke of the crew is Rebecca Shorten from Belfast. She was also in the W8 from 2017-2019. The British have high expectations for this crew. Although they won a bronze at the 2021 European’s, they were slightly disappointed with the performance finishing nearly 4 seconds behind the Irish in silver and a whopping 10 seconds behind the Dutch in gold. The boat also raced at the Lucerne World Cup (although without Bennett, who withdrew due to a family bereavement). Their silver medal was an improvement but was still over 4 seconds behind the Dutch winners.
Tokyo prospects: This boat has all the potential to medal, and word coming from the training camp is that the crew are delivering some awe-inspiring times, but we’ve yet to see that shown in racing. If they get it right in Tokyo, they are definitely capable of getting a medal. My heart says they will be fighting the Irish for bronze, but my head says they may miss out.
Ireland: Aifric Keogh (29), Eimear Lambe (23), Fiona Murtagh (26), Emily Hegarty (22)
If the British have slightly underperformed over the past few seasons, the Irish can say the opposite. 10th in 2019 meant that they missed direct qualification, but the crew have absolutely flown since then (with Fiona Murtagh replacing Tara Hanlon). Bronze at the 2020 Europeans was followed by silver behind the Netherlands at the 2021 Europeans. They crowned off the first half of their season with 1st at the FOQR. Keogh and Hegarty raced in the W2- that finished 8th in 2018. Hegarty also raced with Lambe at the U23 World Championships in 2019, winning a silver medal in the BW4-.
Tokyo prospects: A similar story to the British, a boat capable of challenging for the medals. The bronze could come down to a battle between Ireland and GB, and I think the Irish may just getting the better of that battle.
The Netherlands: Ellen Hogerwerf (32), Karolien Florijn (23), Veronique Meester (26), Ymkje Clevering (26)
The Dutch have been the form crew for the past couple of years, certainly amongst the European nations. Silver medallists behind the Australians in 2019 have been unbeaten since, and in 2021, they won their 3rd straight European Championships. This season they also have convincing wins at both the Lucerne and Sabaudia World Cups. Their line-up for Tokyo is the same as in 2019. Hogerwerf is the most experienced member of the crew, and Tokyo will be her 3rd Olympics; she was 8th in the W2X in London and 6th in the W8 in Rio. The other three crew members all raced together (with Elsbeth Beeres) in the BW4- at the 2017 U23 World Championships, winning the gold medal.
Tokyo prospects: They will go into Tokyo on a high and be the strongest medal contender from the European nations. It’ll be between them and the Australians for gold. The Dutch possibly have the advantage given the greater racing experience they’ve had so far this season.
Poland: Maria Wierzbowska (26), Olga Michałkiewicz (26), Monika Chabel (29), Joanna Dittmann (29)
Poland is one of the most well-established crews; they’ve been rowing in the same line-up since 2017. Both Wierzbowska and Chabel raced at the Rio Olympics, Wierbowska finishing 10th in the W2- (with her sister Anna), and Chabel won bronze in the W4X. Michalkiewicz and Dittmann raced on the U23 together back in 2013, finishing 6th in the BW4-. As a four, this quartet took silver at the World Championships in 2017, and they followed that up in 2018 with European bronze and 5th place at the World Championships. 2019 saw them take another European Bronze medal and then went one better than in 2018 with 4th place at the World Championships. 2021 has been slightly less successful for the Poles; 9th at the Europeans was their worst result in this boat class. They followed that with 4th in Lucerne – over 10 seconds behind the Netherlands in 1st, and then bronze at the Sabaudia World Cup (although neither of the crews they beat in a 5-boat event was Olympic crews).
Tokyo prospects: It feels like the Poles are under-performing this season compared to their form from 2017-2019. So the question is, which crew will be racing in Tokyo….the one that struggled against the Olympic competition in Lucerne and Sabaudia, or the crew that won World and European medals? Unfortunately, I think it will be the former, and if I’m right then, I can’t see the Poles making the A-Final.
Romania: Madalina Heghes (23), Elena Logofatu (24), Cristina Georgiana Popescu (25), Roxana Iuliana Anghel (23)
Romania’s youngest crew in the event qualified the boat with 5th place at the 2019 Worlds, but their crew for Tokyo is an entirely different line-up. They were tweaking their line-up up to the Sabaudia World Cup, where they had two boats entered. Logafatu, Popescu and Anghel were in the no.1 crew that placed 3rd, with Heghes in the no.2 crew that was 5th. Heghes and Logafatu were also in the W4- that finished 4th at the Europeans this season, with Popescu and Anghel having raced in the quad. But they are no strangers to the medal podium; Heghes was in the W4- that won silver at the 2018 European Championships, and Popescu and Anghel were European Champions in the W8 that year.
Tokyo prospects: Another crew that will do well to reach the A-Final, but I think it’s more likely they will place somewhere like 8th.
USA: Madeleine Wanamaker (26), Claire Collins (24), Kendall Chase (26), Grace Luczak (32)
Grace Luczak strokes the US crew. She was World Champion in this event back in 2015 and has World Championship golds from the W8 in 2013 and 2014. She raced in the W2- at the Rio Olympics just missing out on a podium. The W4- in Tokyo will be her first international race since the W2- final in Rio. Wanamaker is another athlete with a World title to her credit; she was bow in the W4- that won gold in 2018, she was also in the crew in 2019 that made the A-Final. Kendall Chase makes her first international appearance since finishing 4th in this boat class in 2017, her debut year on the US Senior team. The final member of the crew is Claire Collins; this is her first year in the senior team, having won a medal in the U23 BW8 in both 2017 and 2018.
Tokyo prospects: You should never discount any US women’s sweep boat, and with Luczak in the stroke seat, they have a huge amount of experience. That being said, I’m not convinced they will be able to fight for the medals against the more established crews; I’m picking them for 5th.
Conclusions and Predictions:
Medal Picks: Should be a great battle between Australia and the Netherlands for gold and silver, and another great battle between Ireland and Great Britain for bronze….. So I’m going for Australia, the Netherlands and GB in that order.
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