So here it is, the big one, the one all rowers want to race at, and for some, the culmination of years of training and dedication: it’s the Olympic Games. Finally, after months of uncertainty, it looks like the Games will happen. One thing’s for sure, these Games will be unlike any other in history. The venue is the Sea Forest Waterway, specially built for the Games and inaugurated in 2019. As the name suggests, it’s a coastal venue and has had its fair share of issues, from strong winds to oysters growing on the buoys. But when conditions are right, it’s a fantastic course.
As always, with my previews, I’ve tried to give a rundown of the form, experience and prospects of those competing. I hope that readers find this a valuable and exciting guide to those racing in Tokyo. If you have enjoyed what I write, perhaps you’d consider buying me a coffee via my Ko-Fi page https://ko-fi.com/X8X64ORYM
Current Standings:
Reigning Champions: Germany (Annekatrin Thiele, Carina Baer, Julia Lier, Lisa Schmidla)
Rio Silver Medallists: The Netherlands (Chantal Achtenberg, Nicole Beukers, Inge Janssen, Carline Bouw)
Rio Bronze Medallists: Poland (Maria Sajdak, Joanna Hentka, Agnieszka Kobus-Zawojska, Monika Chabel)
Australia: Ria Thompson (23), Rowena Meredith (26), Harriet Hudson (23), Caitlin Cronin (26)
Australia finished 10th in the world in 2019, requiring them to race at the Final Olympic Qualifying Regatta in Lucerne. However, 1st place at the FOQR secured their spot. Based on World Championship performances over the last few years, the Australian performances seem to be heading in the wrong direction; 6th in 2017 was followed by 7th in 2018 and then 10th in 2019. But they are a young crew, all of whom have won medals at the U23 level (Meredith, Hudson and Cronin were all in the BW4X that won silver at the 2017 U23 World Championships, and Thompson was U23 BW1X World Champion in 2019.
Tokyo prospects: victory at the FOQR shows that this boat is faster than the 2019 crew, but it is such a robust Olympic field they may not quite have the pace to make the A-Final. I’m predicting 9th.
China: Yunxia Chen (25), Ling Zhang (24), Yang Lyu (27), Xiaotong Ciu (26)
The Chinese will head into Tokyo as the favourites for gold. They are the reigning World Champions and went unbeaten throughout 2019. They also have the same line-up as the world Championship crew, including Ling Zhang and Yang Lyu, who raced at the Rio Olympics. They came to Europe to race at the Lucerne World Cup and dominated the event, beating the Germans by nearly 5 seconds.
Tokyo prospects: It’s going to take something special to defeat the Chinese, and this crew may be China’s best chance at delivering gold for their Chief Coach, Paul Thompson and High-Performance Director, Sir Steve Redgrave.
France: Violaine Aernoudts (21), Margaux Bailleul (22), Marie Jacquet (27), Emma Lunatti (23)
France qualified for Tokyo by finishing behind the Australians at the Final Olympic Qualifying Regatta, making them the lowest-ranked boat in the event. They were 12th in 2019 but only had two of that crew in their line-up for Tokyo (Aernoudts & Bailleul). Jacquet was in the W4X that finished 13th in 2018, and Lunatti made her senior debut in 2020, racing in the w1x at the European Championships. As well as racing at the FOQR, they also competed at the 1st World Cup in Zagreb, winning a silver medal in a 3-boat final.
Tokyo prospects: I think they will be battling the Australians for 9th and 10th places.
Germany: Daniela Schultze (30), Franziska Kampmann (24), Carlotta Nwajide (26), Frieda Haemmerling (24)
The women’s quad (in coxed and un-coxed versions) has been an Olympic event since 1976, and in those 11 Games, a crew from Germany (in one guise or another) had won no fewer than eight times and only failed to win a medal once (when West Germany finished 4th in Los Angeles). For German women’s rowing, the W4x is their event (like the M8 is for their men). This year’s crew stands an excellent chance of continuing that medal haul. Daniela Schultze is the sole member of the crew with previous Olympic experience, having been a member of the W8 in Rio. Since the Rio Olympics, the German’s performances at the World Championship level have been a little mixed with 4th places in both 2017 and 2019. In Tokyo, three of the crew raced in 2019 (Schultze, Kampmann & Haemmerling). However, their more recent results have been more convincing, and with Carlotta Nwajide joining the crew in 2020, they have won medals at every race they’ve entered, silver at the 2020 Europeans and bronze in 2021. Furthermore, they raced at all three of this year’s World Cups, winning gold in Zagreb and Sabaudia and taking the silver behind the Chinese in Lucerne.
Tokyo prospects: Probably the most significant challenge to the Chinese, they should secure a medal place, but I think it’ll be silver.
Great Britain: Mathilda Hodgkins-Byrne (26), Hannah Scott (22), Charlotte Hodgkins-Byrne (24), Lucy Glover (22)
The British have put together a young but very talented quartet for Tokyo. Only one crew member, Matilda Hodgkins-Byrne, remains for the crew that finished 6th in 2019. However, that 6th place was good enough to secure Olympic qualification after missing out in Rio. The British are the 2nd youngest crew in the event with an average age of 23.5 (the French are the youngest by a couple of months), but all four have won medals at u23 level, including three with gold medals. Scott and Charlotte Hodgkins-Byrne won U23 silver in the BW2- in 2018 and were also in the U23 silver meal BW8 in 2019; Charlotte also won gold in the BW2X in 2018. Lucy Glover won gold in the BW4Xx in 2019, and Mathilda was U23 world Champion in 2016 and senior bronze medallist in the W2X in 2017. The crew’s first race was at the 2021 European Championships, where they won silver behind the Netherlands.
Tokyo prospects: Probably Britain’s best chance of a W4X medal since Beijing. They should make the A-Final comfortably and will be in the fight for the bronze.
Italy: Valentina Iseppi (24), Alessandra Montesano (23), Veronica Lisi (33), Stefania Gobbi (26)
Italy has an entirely new line-up to that which finished 8th at the Linz World Championships in 2019. Iseppi and Montesano were in the W4- in Linz that came 12th, and Gobbi raced the W2X that finished 7th. Iseppi and Montesano also raced as U23’s, winning a bronze medal in the BW2X in 2018. Lisi made her senior debut at the 2020 European Championships competing in the W1X and making the B-Final.
The quad raced at the 2021 European Championships (with Clara Guerra instead of Iseppi – who raced in the w2X) and finished 5th. The Tokyo line-up then raced at both the 2nd and 3rd World Cups, winning bronze and silver.
Tokyo prospects: Will probably miss out on the A-Final but be near the front end of the B-Final.
The Netherlands: Laila Youssifou (25), Inge Janssen (32), Olivia van Rooijen (32), Nicole Beukers (30)
One of the most experienced crews in the event, Inge Janssen, will be racing at her 3rd Olympics and won a silver medal in this event in Rio. Olivia van Rooijen also has Olympic experience, having raced in the W8 in Rio. The Netherlands were World Champions in this event in 2017 and had three of that crew have been racing in the quad since then (Janssen, van Rooijen & Nicole Beukers). They also won World Championship bronze in 2019. Laila Youssifou raced in the W1X in Linz, reaching the B-Final, and she moved into the quad in 2020, helping the Dutch win their first European title. They successfully defended that title this year. They also raced at the 2nd and 3rd World Cups but with relatively disappointing results, missing out on the podium on both occasions.
Tokyo prospects: Their form at the European Championships showed they could be right up there for a medal at the start of the season. However, the World Cup performances were disappointing, and if they race like that in Tokyo, they will probably be towards the back of the A-Final. I’ve got them battling the British for the bronze medal, and I think they may miss out.
New Zealand: Georgia Nugent-O’Leary (24), Ruby Tew (27), Eve MacFarlane (28), Olivia Loe (29)
Tokyo will only be the 2nd time New Zealand has had a W4X at the Olympics (the only other time was in London when they finished 7th). They achieved qualification by placing 5th at the Linz World Championships in 2019. But the line-up for 2021 only includes one athlete from the 2019 crew, Ruby Tew. Tew is one of two athletes in the crew with previous Olympic appearances, she raced in the W8 that finished 4th and Eve MacFarlane finished 7th in the London quad and 12th in the W2X in Rio. As mentioned in the W2X preview, the Kiwi selectors have made a bold decision in swapping Olivia Loe with Hannah Osborne. Loe is a two-time World Champion from the W2X, and moving her to the quad is a bit of a gamble. The 4th member of the crew is Georgia Nugent-O’Leary. She was a member of the New Zealand U23 team in 2016, but her senior debut was delayed due to injury. So Tokyo will be her maiden senior international event.
Tokyo prospects: The inclusion of Loe undoubtedly elevates this crew to a potential A-Final placing, but I don’t think they will be contending for the medals, 6th.
Poland: Agnieszka Kobus-Zawojska (30), Marta Wieliczko (26), Maria Sajdak (29), Katarzyna Zillmann (25)
As the most established crew in the event, Poland had competed in the same line-up since 2017, when they won silver at the World Championships. They had a spectacular 2018, winning both the European and World titles. Kobus-Zawojska and Sajdak were both in the quad in Rio that won bronze. Wieliczko and Zillmann also raced at U23 level, winning gold in the BW4X in 2015 and 2016. This quartet were runners-up to the Chinese in Linz. Since Linz, their results haven’t been quite so spectacular. Bronze at the 2020 Europeans was followed up this season by 4th in Lucerne and 3rd in Sabaudia.
Tokyo prospects: another crew that I think will be A-Finalists but may just miss out on the medals – I’m going for 5th.
USA: Cicely Madden (26), Meghan O’Leary (36), Alison Rusher (25), Ellen Tomek (37)
With an average age of 31, the USA are the oldest crew in the event. Ellen Tomek and Meghan O’Leary raced together in the W2X at the Rio Olympics, making the A-Final. Tokyo will be Tomek’s 3rd Olympics; not only she did race in Rio, but she also raced in Beijing with Megan Kalmoe, finishing 5th in the W2X. O’Leary and Tomek continued in the W2X after Rio winning world silver in 2017 and bronze in 2018. Madden raced in the W2X in 2019 with Gevvie Stone, finishing 5th at the World Championships in her debut senior season. The final member of the crew is Alison Rusher. Tokyo will mark her senior international debut. She raced in the U23 team in 2017 and 2018, winning a bronze in the BW8 in 2018.
Tokyo prospects: With the highly experienced Tomek and O’Leary, the US will be very competitive. But, in such a strong field, an A-Final place may just be beyond them. So I’m picking them to win the B-Final for 7th overall.
Conclusions and Predictions:
Medal picks: China in gold, with Germany in silver…..bronze will be tight between GB, The Netherlands and Poland….with my Union Jack pants on; I’m picking the British for the bronze (which is bound to be the kiss of death for this crew!
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